Gulf Arab Nations Issue Stark Warning Over Potential US Exit from Iran Conflict
Gulf Arab nations have explicitly stated that they never requested the United States to initiate a war with Iran. However, a growing consensus among regional sources now warns that halting the conflict prematurely could empower the Islamic Republic to threaten critical oil shipping routes and destabilize economies reliant on them, according to three Gulf sources cited by Reuters.
Shifting Perceptions and Escalating Threats
Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, articulated a widespread sentiment across the Gulf: "There is a wide feeling across the Gulf that Iran has crossed every red line with every Gulf country. At first we defended them and opposed the war. But once they began directing strikes at us, they became an enemy. There is no other way to classify them." This shift in perspective underscores the deepening tensions as Iran has demonstrated its military capabilities through attacks on airports, ports, oil facilities, and commercial centers in the six Gulf countries using missiles and drones.
These assaults have already disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that transports approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply. The attacks have intensified fears that leaving Iran with substantial military or arms-production capacities would enable it to hold the region's energy infrastructure hostage, posing a direct threat to global economic stability.
Concerns Over US Withdrawal and Regional Vulnerability
As the conflict enters its third week, with US and Israeli airstrikes escalating and Iran targeting US bases and civilian sites, Gulf leaders are reportedly urging decisive action to degrade Iran's military power. Sager emphasized the precarious situation: "If the Americans pull out before the task is complete, we’ll be left to confront Iran on our own." A Gulf source echoed this sentiment, stating that the alternative is "living under constant threat," highlighting the perceived necessity of a sustained military campaign to neutralize Iranian capabilities.
US officials are actively seeking support from Gulf states to bolster the ongoing US-Israeli military operations. According to sources, President Donald Trump is pursuing regional backing to enhance both the international legitimacy of the campaign and its domestic support. This diplomatic push comes amid longstanding sectarian tensions, as predominantly Shi'ite Iran has historically viewed its Sunni Gulf neighbors with suspicion, though relations with Qatar and Oman have been relatively less strained.
Strategic Restraint and Collective Defense Measures
Despite the escalating threats, Gulf nations are exercising calculated restraint to avoid being drawn into a broader conflict. The United Arab Emirates has clarified that it "does not seek to be drawn into conflicts or escalation" but reserves the right to protect its sovereignty and residents. Unilateral military action by any Gulf country remains unlikely, with leaders preferring collective measures to mitigate risks of retaliation.
The Gulf Cooperation Council, comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE, has held limited coordination, with only one Zoom call and no summit convened to plan a unified response. Leaders are cautious about triggering a wider regional war. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth noted that Gulf partners are "stepping up even more" and are willing to "go on the offense," focusing on collective air defense initiatives, though specific details remain undisclosed.
Iran's Leverage and International Implications
Iran's demonstrated ability to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has revealed significant leverage over global energy supplies. Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, explained: "Now that Iran has shown it can shut down Hormuz, the Gulf faces a fundamentally different threat." While Trump has called for an international coalition to reopen the waterway, Haykel pointed out that much of the Gulf's oil flows to China, Japan, and other Asian nations, suggesting they may need to play a role in addressing the crisis.
Analyst Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics highlighted the delicate balance Gulf states must strike: addressing immediate Iranian threats while avoiding entanglement in a US-Israeli-led war. Joining the campaign could increase exposure to Iranian reprisals without significantly enhancing US military superiority. Consequently, Gulf nations are adopting a strategy of signalling red lines and defending sovereignty without entering a conflict they did not initiate.
In summary, Gulf Arab nations are navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, warning that a premature US exit from the Iran conflict could leave the region vulnerable to heightened threats against vital oil routes and economic stability, as they advocate for collective defense and strategic restraint.
