Gulf Arab Nations Issue Stark Warning on Iran Threat Amid Ongoing Conflict
Gulf Arab nations have explicitly stated that they never requested the United States to initiate a war with Iran. However, a growing concern has emerged among regional leaders that halting the conflict prematurely could empower the Islamic Republic to threaten critical oil shipping routes and destabilize economies reliant on them, according to three Gulf sources who spoke to Reuters.
Shifting Perceptions and Escalating Tensions
Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, articulated a widespread sentiment across the Gulf region. "There is a wide feeling across the Gulf that Iran has crossed every red line with every Gulf country," he said. "At first we defended them and opposed the war. But once they began directing strikes at us, they became an enemy. There is no other way to classify them."
Iran has demonstrated its military capabilities by launching missiles and drones at airports, ports, oil facilities, and commercial centers in the six Gulf countries. These actions have already disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that transports approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply.
Fears of Abandonment and Regional Vulnerability
The Gulf nations have voiced apprehensions that if the United States withdraws before achieving its objectives, the region will be left to confront Iran independently. "If the Americans pull out before the task is complete, we'll be left to confront Iran on our own," Sager emphasized. These attacks have heightened fears that allowing Iran to retain significant military or arms-production capabilities could enable it to hold the region's energy supply hostage.
As the conflict enters its third week, with intensified US and Israeli airstrikes and Iranian targeting of US bases and civilian sites, Gulf leaders reportedly believe that former US President Donald Trump must take decisive action to degrade Iran's military power. "The alternative is living under constant threat," a Gulf source warned.
US Diplomatic Efforts and Gulf Strategic Calculations
Meanwhile, US officials are actively urging Gulf states to support the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign. According to sources, Trump is seeking regional backing to enhance both the international legitimacy of the operation and its domestic support. Predominantly Shi'ite Iran has historically viewed its Sunni Gulf neighbors with suspicion, though relations with Qatar and Oman have been less strained.
Over the years, Iran and its allies have faced accusations of attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, including the 2019 strike on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities, which Iran denied. For Gulf states, inaction is now perceived as the greater risk. The United Arab Emirates has stated it "does not seek to be drawn into conflicts or escalation" but reserves the right to protect its sovereignty and residents.
Collective Defense and Restrained Responses
Unilateral military action by any Gulf country remains unlikely, with leaders preferring collective measures to mitigate the risk of retaliation. The Gulf Cooperation Council, comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE, has held only one Zoom call, and no summit has been convened to plan a coordinated response, as leaders remain cautious of triggering a wider conflict.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth noted that Gulf partners are "stepping up even more" and are willing to "go on the offense," collaborating on collective air defense, though specific details remain unspecified. A senior UAE official highlighted the country's restraint following Iran's claim that US forces used UAE territory to strike Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal.
Potential Retaliation and Strategic Balancing
Sager indicated that Saudi Arabia might be compelled to retaliate if Iran crosses red lines, such as attacking major oil facilities, desalination plants, or causing significant casualties. "In that case, Saudi Arabia would have no choice but to intervene," he said, while adding that Riyadh would aim to manage its response carefully.
Analyst Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics explained that Gulf states face a delicate balancing act: addressing the immediate threat of Iranian attacks while avoiding entanglement in a US-Israeli-led war. Joining the campaign could increase their exposure to Iranian reprisals without substantially enhancing US military superiority. Consequently, they have adopted a strategy of calculated restraint, signaling red lines and defending sovereignty without entering a conflict they did not initiate.
Leverage in the Strait of Hormuz and International Implications
Iran's demonstrated control over which ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz has revealed its strategic leverage. Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, told Reuters, "Now that Iran has shown it can shut down Hormuz, the Gulf faces a fundamentally different threat." While Trump has called for an international coalition to reopen the waterway, Haykel pointed out that much of the Gulf's oil flows to China, Japan, and other Asian countries, suggesting they may also need to play a role in resolving the crisis.
This complex geopolitical landscape underscores the Gulf nations' precarious position as they navigate between immediate security threats and long-term regional stability.
