Visakhapatnam: Concern is mounting over a possible El Nino-induced weak monsoon in 2026, with rain-fed regions of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema expected to face significant agricultural challenges. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across most districts, with only a few likely to receive normal or above-normal precipitation during the southwest monsoon season from June to September.
El Nino Conditions Expected
El Nino conditions are projected to emerge between June and August and persist through the year. El Nino refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon typically lasts between nine and 12 months and recurs every two to seven years. The IMD estimates seasonal rainfall between 90 and 95 percent of the long-period average, with a central forecast of about 92 percent. The country's long-period average monsoon rainfall, based on 1971-2020 data, stands at 87 cm.
IMD Advisory for Farmers
Speaking to TOI, scientist at IMD-Amaravati, S Karunasagar, said the IMD has indicated that Andhra Pradesh is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026. In the backdrop of possible El Nino conditions developing in 2026, farmers should take advance precautions and plan agricultural activities accordingly, as El Nino can lead to significant changes in wind circulation patterns, rainfall distribution, and temperatures. The last time El Nino conditions developed in the country was in 2023, and Andhra Pradesh received below-normal rainfall that year.
Historical Rainfall Patterns
According to IMD, in the past 12 years (2014-2025), Andhra Pradesh recorded deficient rainfall in 2014, 2018, and 2023 during the monsoon period. The cumulative rainfall deficiency stood at 18.4 percent in 2014, 10 percent in 2018, and 13 percent in 2023. Andhra Pradesh recorded above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024, and normal rainfall in 2025.
Expert Recommendations
Though the overall impact of the potential El Nino event in 2026 on the agriculture sector is likely to be limited compared to earlier decades, experts in the agriculture sector emphasize the need to promote better water conservation practices, farm management, and wider use of high-yielding and resilient seed varieties.
Irrigation Challenges
Most parts of south coastal Andhra Pradesh have a proper irrigation system, whereas Rayalaseema and north coastal Andhra Pradesh have only 20 to 30 percent of their lands equipped with irrigation systems. Farmers in north Andhra opined that the government needs to proceed with caution but confidence and focus on maintaining a comfortable position of reservoir storage to meet adverse weather conditions.
