The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a significant weather alert indicating the possible formation of a fresh cyclonic system in the southern Bay of Bengal next week. According to the latest forecast released on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, meteorological conditions are favorable for the development of a depression around November 24.
Cyclonic System Development Timeline
The weather monitoring agency stated that a low-pressure system is likely to develop in the southeast Bay of Bengal around November 22. This system is expected to follow a west-northwesterly trajectory, intensifying into a depression by November 24 over the southern Bay of Bengal. The IMD further indicated that the system will continue to intensify during the subsequent 48 hours as it maintains its westward movement toward India's eastern coastal regions.
Rainfall Forecast for Southern States
In response to this developing weather system, the IMD has predicted continued rainfall activity across southern peninsular India until early next week. Light to moderate rainfall is forecast over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema until November 25. Meanwhile, rainfall over Kerala is expected to reduce significantly after November 21, bringing relief to the state that has experienced heavy downpours recently.
Current Weather Conditions and Monsoon Performance
Currently, a cyclonic circulation persists in the southwest Bay of Bengal, while an existing low-pressure area over the Comorin region and adjoining Lakshadweep continues to drive moisture inland. This weather pattern has been responsible for the ongoing wet spell in southern peninsular India, particularly affecting Kerala and Tamil Nadu since the beginning of the week.
The Met Office noted that the current system is likely to move slowly west-northwestwards during the next 24 hours, signaling an end to the significant rainfall over southern states soon.
Regarding Northeast monsoon performance, the IMD reported that extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 204 mm in 24 hours was recorded at multiple locations in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where the Northeast monsoon remains active. The worst-affected districts included Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, Thoothukudi, Kottayam, Alappuzha, and Ernakulam.
Despite the recent heavy rainfall, data from the IMD reveals a concerning trend. While the Northeast monsoon, which began on October 15, has shown close to normal rainfall performance overall (7.3% above normal), the period from November 1 to 19 has recorded abysmally low rainfall. Southern peninsular India received only 22.7 mm against the normal 67.1 mm, resulting in a substantial rainfall deficit of 66%.
