The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a warmer-than-usual winter season for Andhra Pradesh, with a high probability of no cold wave days occurring between December 2025 and February 2026. This continues a notable trend observed over the past decade, where the intensity and frequency of severe cold conditions have significantly diminished across the state.
IMD's Seasonal Forecast: Warmer Nights, Cooler Days
According to the detailed seasonal outlook from the IMD, Andhra Pradesh is likely to experience above-average minimum temperatures (warmer nights) during the upcoming winter period. Interestingly, while nights are expected to be warmer, the forecast indicates that maximum daytime temperatures will be normal to below normal. This pattern suggests milder overall conditions compared to historical winter chill.
The forecast model extends beyond the state, indicating that normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are probable over most parts of central India and adjoining peninsular and northwest India. Above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over the remaining parts of the country.
A Decade-Long Decline in Cold Waves
The prediction of a mild winter aligns with a clear long-term trend. Andhra Pradesh has witnessed a drastic reduction in cold wave days over the past ten years. Remarkably, the state has not recorded a single cold wave day in the last four consecutive winters—2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024.
This stands in stark contrast to winters a decade ago. For instance, the state endured 20 cold wave days in 2011 and 16 in 2012. The absence of such severe cold spells in recent years underscores a significant shift in winter weather patterns.
S Karunasagar, a scientist at IMD-Amaravati, confirmed the outlook, stating that the winter season is likely to be mild with no cold wave days anticipated over coastal Andhra or the Rayalaseema districts.
What Constitutes a Cold Wave?
The IMD defines a cold wave event when the minimum temperature at a station drops to 10 degrees Celsius or lower in plains (and 0 degrees Celsius or lower in hilly regions). For a formal declaration, these conditions must persist for at least three consecutive days.
Lambasingi: AP's 'Kashmir' Feels the Chill Early
Despite the broader forecast for a mild winter, the state's coldest pockets have already begun recording low temperatures. Lammasingi (Lambasingi), a tiny tribal hamlet in the Chintapalle mandal of Alluri Sitarama Raju (ASR) district, is famously known as Andhra Pradesh's 'Kashmir' for its foggy and cool winter weather.
Residents in the tribal areas of ASR district have been experiencing below-normal temperatures for the past several days. Locals expect the mercury to dip further in the coming weeks. In a precursor to the winter season, Chintapalle in ASR district recorded temperatures below 10 degrees Celsius on two days in November 2025.
The IMD's forecast suggests that while these regions will be cool, they are unlikely to meet the stringent, sustained criteria for a declared cold wave event during the core winter months.
