Pakistan is experiencing a profound and accelerating downturn, a reality starkly reflected in its key economic and social metrics. This decline is not just relative to its own past performance but also in comparison to other developing nations that have now surged ahead. The situation, as highlighted by analyst S. Akbar Zaidi in a December 2025 assessment, points to a serious reversal of fortunes for the country.
A Relative and Absolute Decline
The core of Pakistan's crisis is twofold. First, the nation has fallen behind countries it once outperformed or was on par with. Multiple indicators now show these comparable nations steadily and increasingly outpacing Pakistan. Second, and perhaps more damning, is the internal regression. Key indicators for Pakistan's economy and related social and human development sectors are worse now than they were several years or even decades ago. This means the decline is both relative to external benchmarks and absolute in its domestic impact.
The Role of Political Economy
Compounding the troubling economic and social data are recent shifts in Pakistan's governance structure. Analysts point to a political economy reorganisation marked by centralisation and consolidation of power. This trend, rather than offering a solution, is expected to ensure a further deterioration of the already declining indicators. The consolidation of decision-making often sidelines broader developmental agendas, focusing resources and attention away from critical human development needs.
Consequences for Human Development
The most severe impact of this multi-faceted decline is felt in the realms of human and social development. When an economy contracts and political systems centralise, sectors like health, education, and social welfare typically suffer the deepest cuts and receive the least priority. The result is a generation facing diminished opportunities, poorer healthcare outcomes, and lower educational attainment compared to both their parents' generation and their peers in neighbouring countries. This creates a vicious cycle where a less healthy and less skilled workforce struggles to propel economic growth, leading to further stagnation.
The analysis from late 2025 presents a clear warning: without a significant course correction that prioritises inclusive growth and decentralised governance, Pakistan's decline risks becoming entrenched, with long-term consequences for its stability and prosperity.
