A new United Nations report warns that artificial intelligence (AI) could soon consume up to 3% of the world's electricity and deplete more water for cooling than the annual drinking water needs of the global population. The report challenges the argument that future AI models will become more efficient and thus require fewer resources, labeling this reasoning a trap.
Jevons Paradox and AI Efficiency
The report estimates that by 2030, AI's energy use could double, producing carbon emissions equivalent to the entire United Kingdom. It also anticipates that AI adoption will follow the 'Jevons paradox,' an economic principle where technological improvements that increase resource efficiency actually lead to higher overall consumption. Named after economist William Stanley Jevons, who observed this effect with coal use in 19th-century England, the paradox suggests that as AI models become cheaper and more attractive, new uses will emerge, eroding any savings from efficiency gains.
Scale of the Problem
Last year, data centers consumed as much electricity as Saudi Arabia, the world's 11th largest electricity consumer. If electricity use doubles by 2030, the associated carbon footprint would require 6.7 billion trees grown over ten years to offset. Data centers would also need 9.3 trillion liters of water and land nearly ten times the size of Mexico City. Beyond resource use, the report highlights structural inequity: only 32 nations host AI-specific cloud infrastructure, with 90% of that capacity in the US and China. This widens the digital divide, as consuming nations bear disproportionate environmental burdens from mineral extraction and e-waste.
Path to Responsible AI
The report outlines a roadmap for responsible AI based on transparency, efficiency by design, equity, lifecycle responsibility, global cooperation, and sustainable use. It calls for full value-chain governance, from mineral sourcing to recycling, and urges environmental disclosures to become routine in AI development. Countries like New Zealand and Australia have adopted 'light touch' regulatory approaches, but the report warns that these risk overlooking growing environmental costs. The natural environment is foundational to economy, culture, and wellbeing, and the report urges a shift toward a sustainable tech future.
