Gold price prediction today: Given the geopolitical tensions and a possible change in the US Federal Reserve's stance, gold prices are likely to see limited upside in the near term, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.
Gold price action and macroeconomic factors
Gold traded in a tight range last week between $4,400 and $4,600 per ounce and began this week on a cautious note. Prices are currently around $4,500 per ounce, nearly 19% below the record highs touched in January and about 14% below pre-war levels. During the peak of the US-Iran conflict in March, gold corrected sharply but found strong support near $4,099 per ounce. The recent price movement has been driven more by macroeconomic factors than pure safe-haven demand, as elevated crude oil prices have increased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts. On the US-Iran front, negotiations are happening on one side while strikes continue between the US and Iran on the other, so significant uncertainty remains in the markets.
Focus for the week
This week, markets are closely focused on major US economic data, especially the Core PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Stronger-than-expected inflation data could support the dollar and bond yields, putting pressure on gold prices, while softer data may revive expectations of Fed easing and support bullion. Investors are also tracking developments in US-Iran negotiations, as talks continue alongside fresh military strikes and geopolitical uncertainty. Since the start of the war, gold has remained highly headline-driven, balancing between safe-haven demand and inflation-related pressure from rising oil prices.
Technical levels and near-term outlook
Gold (Spot) CMP: $4,500 per ounce
- Support: $4,375 / $4,300
- Resistance: $4,650 / $4,760
MCX Gold CMP: ₹1,57,540 per 10 grams
- Support: ₹1,53,200 / ₹1,50,500
- Resistance: ₹1,62,700 / ₹1,66,200
From the week's perspective, the PCE index, the closely watched inflation gauge due Thursday, remains crucial. Because of prolonged disruptions and elevated oil prices, inflation data has been surprising on the upside and could continue to do so for at least another month or two, which may pressure gold prices. This might give long-term investors a buy-on-dip opportunity. However, in the short term, a strong upside may also remain limited considering the shift in Fed stance ahead. Thus, gold is likely to remain volatile but supported, with investors advised to accumulate gradually on dips rather than chase prices aggressively.
Silver price outlook
For silver as well, the near-term bias remains weak due to the macro backdrop. However, the long-term structural demand outlook remains positive, supported by growing usage in solar energy, electronics, electric vehicles, and advanced technologies.
International Silver CMP: $76.80 per ounce
- Support: $73.50 / $69.50
- Resistance: $79.20 / $83
MCX Silver CMP: ₹2,72,200 per kilogram
- Support: ₹2,60,500 / ₹2,46,000
- Resistance: ₹2,80,700 / ₹2,94,200
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.
