Arsenal finds itself in a familiar yet precarious position: sitting at the summit of the English Premier League as the festive season arrives. However, manager Mikel Arteta and the club's supporters are all too aware that this holiday lead offers no assurance of ultimate glory come May.
A History of Festive Fades for the Gunners
The statistics present a sobering picture for the North London club. Topping the table at Christmas has traditionally been a bad omen for Arsenal. In the Premier League era, they have held the Yuletide number one spot on four previous occasions—in 2002-03, 2007-08, 2022-23, and 2023-24—and failed to win the title every single time. The last two instances under Arteta saw Manchester City overtake them to claim the crown, a painful lesson the manager knows intimately.
Arteta's team secured this year's Christmas top spot with a narrow 1-0 away victory at Everton on Saturday, December 20, 2025, thanks to a penalty from striker Viktor Gyokeres. This win ended a concerning run of form away from home, where they had taken just two points from a possible nine. Their lead now stands at a slender two points over defending champions Manchester City.
The Relentless Pursuit of Manchester City
The sight of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City in close pursuit is a hauntingly familiar scenario for Arsenal. While this may not be considered a vintage City side, their current form is ominous. A 3-0 win against West Ham on Saturday marked their seventh consecutive victory across all competitions and fifth in a row in the league.
City's charge is spearheaded by the league's most lethal striker, Erling Haaland. The Norwegian powerhouse scored a double against West Ham, taking his season's tally to 38 goals in 28 games for club and country. He leads the Premier League scoring charts with 19 goals, eight clear of his nearest rival. In contrast, Arsenal's big attacking signing, Viktor Gyokeres, has managed just seven goals in 24 games for club and country, with his Everton penalty being only his fifth league goal this season.
Historically, City thrives from this position. They have won the title on four occasions when not leading at Christmas. Furthermore, when they have been top at Christmas, they possess a 100% conversion rate, having won the league all three times.
Aston Villa Emerges as Genuine Contender
The title race is not merely a two-horse chase. Unai Emery's Aston Villa has emerged as the form team of the division, sitting just three points behind Arsenal in third place. A victory against Manchester United on Sunday extended their remarkable run to 11 wins from their last 12 league games. They are currently on a 19-game unbeaten streak across all competitions, winning 16 of those matches.
Despite the historical weight and fierce competition, Mikel Arteta is choosing to focus on his team's performance rather than past failures. "What gives me belief and confidence is the level of performance and the consistency of that," Arteta stated after the Everton win. "That's very, very difficult to do in this league and that means the team is constantly there."
The overall Premier League history shows that the Christmas leader goes on to win the title just over 51% of the time (17 out of 33 seasons). Other clubs like Manchester United and Chelsea have converted Christmas leads into titles five times each. For Arsenal and their fans, the hope is that this season will finally break the festive curse, but with Manchester City's relentless push and Aston Villa's stunning form, the champagne must undoubtedly remain on ice.
