The political landscape of Maharashtra has undergone a seismic shift following the much-anticipated reunion of estranged cousins Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray after two decades. This new alliance has effectively sounded the death knell for the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition, which was formed in 2019 to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) out of power.
The Rise and Fall of the MVA Coalition
The MVA, comprising Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), the Congress, and Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (SP), ruled the state for two and a half years. However, it suffered catastrophic splits in 2022 when large factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP rebelled against their respective leaders. Despite a strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning 30 of Maharashtra's 48 seats, the coalition was decimated in the subsequent assembly polls, managing to secure only 46 out of 288 seats collectively.
While the assembly election results had already weakened the MVA, the Thackeray cousins' pact has pushed it to the brink of total disintegration. Sharad Pawar has indicated his willingness to align with the Thackerays, leaving the Congress isolated. The Congress's refusal to partner with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), due to its aggressive stance against north Indian migrants, has placed the party in a precarious position.
Congress's Solo Gambit and the Upcoming Civic Test
The immediate challenge for the Congress is the high-stakes elections to 29 civic corporations, including the crucial Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), scheduled for January 15. In the recently concluded municipal council and nagar panchayat polls, which were swept by the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, the Congress emerged as the principal opposition. The party won 824 seats, significantly outperforming its former MVA allies—the NCP(SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT), which managed only 256 and 244 seats respectively.
Emboldened by this, Maharashtra Congress chief Harshwardhan Sapkal announced that the party is in talks to form an alliance with Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) for the corporation elections. This move marks a bold attempt by the Congress to chart its own course in the state where its fortunes have dwindled since 2009. In the 2024 assembly elections, the Congress won just 16 out of the 101 seats it contested, with a vote share of 12.42%—its lowest ever in Maharashtra, yet still the second-highest after the BJP.
High Risks and Potential Rewards
By distancing itself from Raj Thackeray, the Congress hopes to consolidate support from minorities, Dalits, and migrant voters. It also aims to avoid any anti-incumbency sentiment against Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, which has long dominated the BMC. However, this solo strategy pits the Congress directly against the electorally dominant BJP and divides the opposition vote, potentially handing an advantage to the ruling Mahayuti.
The civic polls will be a critical test of the Congress's weakened organisational strength. A decent performance could redefine its alliance strategy, while a poor showing could further diminish its relevance and bargaining power in state politics. Congress leaders, like LoP Vijay Wadettiwar, argue that independent contests in local body elections should not be seen as a rift within the MVA or the INDIA bloc, citing different political realities at the grassroots level.
Nevertheless, if the Thackeray alliance proves electorally successful, the Congress may be forced to prepare for a prolonged period of going it alone in Maharashtra, fundamentally altering the dynamics of the state's opposition space.
