Union Home Minister Amit Shah has made a bold prediction, stating his confidence that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will form the government in Kerala following the state assembly elections in 2026. This assertion is based on what he describes as a consistent and significant climb in the party's electoral performance in the southern state.
The Numbers Tell the Story: A Steady Vote Share Ascent
Shah pointed to concrete electoral data to back his claim. He noted that the BJP's vote share in Kerala has seen a remarkable upward trajectory. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the party secured approximately 11% of the votes in the state. A decade later, in the 2024 general elections, this figure had risen sharply to around 20%.
The Home Minister emphasized the historical significance of this threshold. He argued that in Indian politics, once a party crosses the 20% vote share mark in a state, it often experiences rapid gains and becomes a serious contender for power. This statistical trend forms the core of the BJP's optimism for the 2026 Kerala polls.
Ground Reality: Local Body Wins Signal a Shift
Beyond parliamentary numbers, Shah highlighted recent successes at the grassroots level as evidence of changing political dynamics. He referred to the outcomes of the local body elections, where the BJP contested under the symbols of the NDA.
The party secured significant victories, with the most notable being the election of a BJP mayor in Thiruvananthapuram, the state capital. This breakthrough in urban local governance is seen as a major milestone, demonstrating the party's expanding organizational reach and growing public acceptance beyond its traditional vote base.
Interpreting the Political Winds in God's Own Country
Amit Shah's statements underscore a strategic narrative being built by the BJP. For decades, Kerala's political landscape has been dominated by two fronts: the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF). The BJP's national leadership now believes that this bipolarity is eroding, creating space for a third force.
The increasing vote share and the tangible wins in local administrations are presented as clear indicators that the NDA is becoming a viable alternative for Kerala's voters. Shah's declaration is aimed at energizing the party cadre and sending a message to potential allies and voters that the BJP is a serious and rising power in the state.
The road to 2026 will be closely watched, as the BJP attempts to convert its growing vote percentage into a larger number of assembly seats, a challenge it has faced in the past. However, with the Home Minister's confident prediction, the stage is set for an intensely competitive election where the NDA will aim to break the traditional mould of Kerala politics.
