Guwahati: The BJP-led four-party National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to retain power in Assam for a historic third consecutive term, according to a flurry of exit polls released on Wednesday evening. The projections indicate a strong pro-incumbency wave led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
Record Voter Turnout
The single-phase elections on April 9 recorded the highest-ever poll participation in the state, with a voter turnout of 85.9 percent. This high turnout indicates a highly mobilised electorate, reflecting deep engagement with the electoral process.
Exit Poll Projections
The projections suggest a comfortable victory for the saffron alliance. Several pollsters predict a thumping mandate that could see the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) crossing the halfway mark of 64 seats in the 126-member assembly on its own for the first time. On average, across eight exit polls, the NDA is expected to win around 86 to 97 seats. The Congress and its allies are projected to secure about 24 to 32 seats, while other parties, including the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), are estimated to win roughly one to three seats. This indicates a clear edge for the BJP-led alliance across various pollsters.
Understanding Exit Polls
Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voters cast their votes. These polls aim to predict election outcomes based on voter responses and observed trends. They provide an early indication of the likely results, though final outcomes are determined by official counting.
Comparison with 2021 Exit Polls
A look at Assam's 2021 exit polls showed that almost every pollster agreed the BJP-led NDA was ahead, but the size of that lead varied dramatically. Some polls, such as those by India Today–Axis My India and Republic-CNX, were remarkably close to the final tally, projecting the NDA in the mid-70s to low-80s and the Congress plus allies around 40 to 50 seats. Others, including ABP News–CVoter, TV9-Polstrat, and TimesNow-CVoter, leaned toward a hung assembly. The average of all polls placed the NDA at about 71 seats and the Congress-led alliance at 54, which was only a few seats off the actual result of 75 versus 50 seats.
Counting and Implications
The official counting of votes will take place on May 4, alongside the results for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry. If the projections hold true, the BJP will cement its position as the undisputed dominant force in Northeast India, marking a significant milestone in the region's political landscape.
