The political landscape of Maharashtra has been plunged into uncertainty following the tragic plane crash that claimed the life of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Ajit Pawar. With a remarkable career spanning over three decades, Pawar was a dominant force in state politics, having been elected as an MLA from Baramati for an unprecedented eight consecutive terms and serving as deputy chief minister under four different chief ministers.
The Immediate Aftermath and Leadership Questions
Ajit Pawar's sudden death has not only created a significant void in Maharashtra's political arena but has also ignited intense speculation about the future trajectory of his party. Political analysts are unanimous in their assessment that the NCP now faces a severe leadership crisis, as there is no clearly designated second-in-command to assume the mantle.
The Merger Dilemma: Will NCP Factions Unite?
One of the most pressing questions revolves around the potential reunification of the two NCP factions. Two years after Ajit Pawar rebelled against his uncle Sharad Pawar and formed his own faction, both groups demonstrated a willingness to collaborate during recent local body elections in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad.
Political analyst Prakash Akolkar noted in an interview with PTI that both factions contested the February 5 Zilla Parishad elections together using the 'clock' symbol, which effectively signaled an unofficial merger. "The question is no longer about who merges with whom," Akolkar observed. "With only two Opposition parties left - Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) - it remains to be seen whether the Congress can revive itself."
However, this electoral alliance proved disappointing in practice. In the 165-member Pune Municipal Corporation, the combined NCP managed to secure only 27 seats while the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) won just 3 seats, compared to BJP's commanding tally of 119. The results were even more dismal in the 102-member Pimpri Chinchwad civic body, where Ajit Pawar's party secured 37 seats and Sharad Pawar's faction failed to win any, while BJP dominated with 84 seats.
Historical Context of the Split
The current situation traces back to 2023 when Ajit Pawar, accompanied by several senior leaders, broke away from Sharad Pawar's leadership and aligned with the BJP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena. The younger Pawar had expressed reservations about his uncle continuing to lead the party despite advanced age. Following this realignment, Ajit Pawar was sworn in as deputy chief minister, advocating for cooperation with the ruling coalition while Sharad Pawar's faction remained committed to the opposition.
The Election Commission subsequently recognized Ajit Pawar's faction as the legitimate NCP, allowing them to retain the party's iconic 'clock' symbol. Now, with recent developments, observers are keenly watching whether both factions will find renewed motivation to reunite.
Succession Challenges Within the Party
Should the party choose not to merge with Sharad Pawar's faction, it will confront a serious leadership vacuum. The absence of a clear successor to Ajit Pawar presents significant challenges for the party's continuity and direction.
Potential Contenders for Leadership
Several names have emerged as possible successors, though each comes with limitations:
- Sunetra Pawar: Ajit Pawar's wife and a Rajya Sabha MP who is active in Maharashtra politics but lacks substantial administrative experience.
- Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare: The party's working president and state NCP president respectively, both considered contenders for leadership but lacking the statewide grassroots connection that Ajit Pawar commanded.
- Chagan Bhujbal: Viewed as the only mass-based leader in the party following Ajit Pawar's demise, though he has reportedly stepped back from active politics due to health concerns.
Broader Political Implications
The questions surrounding the NCP's future have profound implications for Maharashtra's political equilibrium. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis faces the delicate task of ensuring that the 41 MLAs aligned with Ajit Pawar do not drift back toward Sharad Pawar's faction.
The Deputy Chief Minister Vacancy
Speculation is mounting about who will fill the vacant deputy chief ministerial position from the NCP quota. This decision will significantly influence the balance of power within the ruling Mahayuti alliance.
If the NCP factions were to reunite, Supriya Sule - who referred to Ajit Pawar as "dada" - could emerge as a central figure, particularly given that Sharad Pawar has maintained a lower public profile recently due to health considerations and was notably absent during the recent local body elections.
Electoral Context and Future Prospects
The urgency of these questions stems from the NCP's substantial influence in Maharashtra politics. The party's direction will inevitably affect both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the broader political trajectory of the state.
In the 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections, the BJP secured 132 seats, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena won 57 seats, while Ajit Pawar's NCP captured 41 seats. More recently, in civic polls across Maharashtra, the NCP - which contested separately from its Mahayuti allies - managed to win 167 seats across 29 municipal corporations. However, the party suffered significant defeats in its traditional strongholds of Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad, where it had aligned with Sharad Pawar's NCP (SP), which secured only 36 seats statewide.
The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining whether the NCP can navigate this leadership crisis, address internal divisions, and maintain its relevance in Maharashtra's complex political landscape.
