NEW DELHI: All eyes are on the high-stakes battle between West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the Leader of Opposition in the assembly, Suvendu Adhikari, as counting of votes takes place on Monday. Banerjee, the chief of the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), re-contested from the Bhowanipore seat, which went to polls in the second phase on April 29. Meanwhile, Adhikari campaigned as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate for both Nandigram and Bhowanipore.
Background of the Rivalry
In 2021, Banerjee had contested against Adhikari in his home turf, Nandigram, and lost to the BJP leader by 1,956 votes. Now, Adhikari takes on Banerjee in Bhowanipore, the Chief Minister’s home constituency. Bhowanipore has long been a stronghold for Banerjee; she has represented the seat as an MLA since 2011 and has not lost an election there. After becoming Chief Minister in 2011, she secured a decisive bypoll victory from Bhowanipore by 54,213 votes. In 2016, her margin narrowed as she defeated Congress candidate Deepa Dasmunshi, backed by the Left, by 25,301 votes, while the BJP secured 26,299 votes.
Recent Electoral Trends
In 2021, the TMC retained Bhowanipore, with Sovandeb Chattopadhyay defeating BJP’s Rudranil Ghosh by 28,719 votes. However, the BJP’s vote share rose to 35.2%, signaling a growing presence. Banerjee later returned to contest the Bhowanipore bypoll, winning by 58,835 votes and securing her third term as Chief Minister.
Voter List Changes
The electorate in Bhowanipore has undergone significant changes, with 41,068 names removed from the rolls, reducing the voter base by around 20% to about 1.6 lakh. An analysis by Souptik Halder, along with Ashin Chakraborty and Sabir Ahamed, found that 56.7% of voters flagged under the ‘under adjudication’ category are Muslims, compared to their 20% share in the constituency’s population as per the 2011 Census. Earlier findings had shown Muslims accounted for 22.7% of voters marked as ‘Absent, Shifted, or Dead/Duplicate’ (ASDD), with the ‘unmapped’ share at around 26%, roughly in line with their population share. However, this rose sharply to 52% in the ‘logical discrepancy’ list.
According to Chakraborty, despite Bhowanipore being a mixed-community constituency, Muslims are disproportionately represented among those under scrutiny. Halder added that booth-wise analysis of 2021 and 2024 data suggests that if voters under adjudication are unable to vote, the TMC’s winning margin could drop significantly, and in some booths even disappear.
Broader Election Context
The West Bengal results are part of a larger electoral landscape that includes Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry. In West Bengal, the TMC faces a tough challenge from the BJP, while in Tamil Nadu, the DMK and AIADMK are in a tight race. Kerala sees a contest between the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, and Assam and Puducherry also await their verdicts.
