Kerala Assembly Elections: A Defining Moment for Top Political Leaders
The forthcoming assembly elections in Kerala are shaping up as a do-or-die battle for the commanders-in-chief of the state's major political parties: the CPM, Congress, and BJP. For Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, Opposition Leader V D Satheesan, and BJP State President Rajeev Chandrasekhar, this electoral contest could completely alter the trajectory of their political careers, with high personal and professional stakes on the line.
The Stakes for Opposition Leader V D Satheesan
Satheesan was the first to openly acknowledge this predicament, albeit in a different context. He has stated that he would go into political hibernation if the United Democratic Front (UDF) fails to wrest power from the Left Democratic Front (LDF). His repeated affirmation of this stance has invigorated the UDF rank and file, rallying support around his leadership.
A closer examination of the recent history of power shifts within the Congress party in Kerala reveals that Satheesan's statement is more realistic than hyperbolic. While whether he would become chief minister if the UDF wins is a secondary consideration, it is clear that he would find it impossible to retain his role as opposition leader if the front loses a third consecutive assembly election. Even if he attempts to step back from responsibility in such a scenario, the political reversal is likely to haunt him persistently.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's Absolute Power at Risk
For Vijayan, nothing short of a victory would sustain his dominance in the political arena. He has wielded absolute power for over three decades, both within the CPM and the state government, and he visibly relishes this control. "It would be unfathomable for a leader like Pinarayi Vijayan to contemplate being an opposition leader in the assembly. Only the position of chief minister can keep him actively engaged in politics," noted social critic and political analyst Damodar Prasad.
The manner in which Vijayan is maneuvering to secure a third consecutive win for the LDF underscores his seriousness about retaining power. His leadership style is unique: he remains reticent for extended periods, breaking silence only when circumstances are favorable, a strategy driven more by political intuition than formal planning.
In the 2020 local body elections, which followed the controversy over women's entry at Sabarimala, the CPM did not use Vijayan's image in campaigns. Yet, the LDF achieved a surprise victory and maintained that momentum by winning the 2021 assembly elections. By that time, Vijayan had become a permanent fixture on television screens with his daily Covid-19 updates, enhancing his public profile.
Now, CPM campaign strategists are attempting to replicate this effect by erecting Vijayan's hoardings across Kerala and arranging live TV interviews on agreed topics. However, this approach places the 80-year-old leader solely responsible for the electoral outcome for the CPM and LDF. Political observer and author J Prabhash emphasized that while a defeat would be devastating for all three leaders, it could be politically fatal for Vijayan, given his entrenched position.
BJP's Rajeev Chandrasekhar and the Third Alternative Narrative
Chandrasekhar is striving to build a narrative that the BJP is contesting the elections to form a government, though even the party's rank and file remains skeptical. To claim credit for the BJP's past success, such as replacing the UDF as the major opposition in the Thiruvananthapuram corporation in 2015, he must secure at least a couple of seats this time. In the current context, no one in the BJP is willing to share responsibility in the event of a complete defeat.
The assembly elections thus test Chandrasekhar's new strategy of emphasizing development over politics, aiming to create space for the BJP as a third alternative force without overtly displaying Sangh Parivar colors. This approach is critical for his credibility and the party's future in Kerala.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Electoral Showdown
In summary, the Kerala assembly elections represent a pivotal moment for the state's top political leaders. The outcomes will not only determine the immediate governance but also reshape the long-term careers of Vijayan, Satheesan, and Chandrasekhar. As the campaign intensifies, the personal and party stakes continue to rise, making this one of the most closely watched electoral battles in recent Kerala history.
