NEW DELHI: "Our party is not about MPs and MLAs. They come and go, but our party belongs to its cadres. Let our time come and we will show how parties are broken up," said Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut on Tuesday in remarks that came across as much an acknowledgement of the split threat his party faces as a warning to BJP.
While his warning remains in the realm of uncertainty, there is a growing view in political circles that the government can bring back its bill to roll out quotas for women in Lok Sabha and assemblies from 2029, with nearly a 50% rise in seats of legislatures, in Parliament's monsoon session, expected in the second half of July, on the back of more desertions from the opposition's camp.
"The window for passage of the bill is shrinking as delimitation will take a long time. Developments in TMC and Sena UBT suggest serious attempts to increase NDA numbers. We are sure the bill will be brought in the coming session," a BJP ally said.
Recently, a top BJP functionary asserted that the government will bring the bill even if it has to call a special session the day it is sure of numbers, noting that even though the Constitution amendment bill, which needs two-thirds support, was defeated, two other accompanying bills, including one for delimitation, were not withdrawn from Lok Sabha.
Sources in NDA said the new Constitution amendment bill's wording may be changed to placate a party like DMK, which is no longer a part of the opposition INDIA bloc, as it wanted an explicit guarantee that Lok Sabha seats in all states will rise in a manner that does not harm southern states due to their success in curbing population growth.
In fact, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who piloted the bill in the Budget session, had offered to incorporate the assurance into the amendment bill in an unsuccessful bid to get DMK to reconsider its opposition to the bill.
There is also a view that the recent three-language mandate for Class 9 from July 1, which has drawn criticism from sections of parents and political parties, can be suitably altered in an outreach to parties like DMK. If DMK comes around, coupled with the backing of 20 rebel Trinamool MPs, NDA will have the support of 335 MPs, still short of the required 360 in case all current 540 Lok Sabha members are present in the House. It can bank on desertions from parties like Sena UBT — though it has insisted its MPs are united — to have a realistic chance.
Numbers are more favourable to the government in Rajya Sabha. NDA managers were hopeful of DMK support even the last time as its representatives had expressed openness to the proposal, but political necessity to maintain its strident opposition to BJP in view of assembly polls in Tamil Nadu and Congress's pressure forced its hand, sources said.
With DMK now out of office and out of the INDIA bloc, it is expected to be more pragmatic as population-based delimitation based on the 2027 census will weaken southern states' political weight in Lok Sabha, a point emphasised by parties like TDP and JDS, both government allies but based in south India, as they have called for backing the government's proposal.
