BJP Grapples with Coalition Complexities as NCP Merger Talks Intensify
In a significant political development, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is confronting mounting challenges in managing its coalition dynamics within Maharashtra's ruling Mahayuti alliance. This comes amid growing speculation about a potential merger between the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Sharad Pawar's NCP(SP) faction, which could reshape the state's political landscape.
Sharad Pawar's Displeasure Adds to BJP's Troubles
Senior BJP leaders have privately acknowledged that navigating coalition politics may become increasingly difficult as merger discussions gain momentum between the two NCP factions. The situation escalated when veteran politician Sharad Pawar publicly expressed his displeasure over Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis questioning the proposed unification.
"I am happy that Sunetra Pawar has taken the oath of office as the Deputy Chief Minister. On the merger issue, the talks were going on between Ajit Pawar and Jayant Patil. What right does Devendra Fadnavis have to question the merger when he was not involved," Pawar stated emphatically during a recent address.
Leadership Vacuum Creates Strategic Uncertainty
The political vacuum created by the untimely demise of Ajit Pawar presents a dual challenge—not only for his own NCP faction but also for its ruling ally, the BJP. While Sunetra Pawar has assumed the role of Deputy Chief Minister, succeeding her husband, questions linger about her ability to consolidate the party's organizational strength and maintain its electoral base.
BJP strategists have acknowledged these internal challenges while reaffirming their support for the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction. "The NCP versus NCP(SP) will be played out on multiple fronts. But we will strongly back the NCP which has pledged support to the NDA. We are committed to the family of Ajit Pawar and his NCP faction," revealed a senior party functionary.
Maratha Community Support Emerges as Critical Factor
Another significant concern for the BJP revolves around the NCP's traditional stronghold among the Maratha community. Historically, the BJP's core electoral base has centered on the Other Backward Classes (OBC) community, with its impressive victory in the 2024 Assembly elections partly attributed to OBC consolidation amid polarization over Maratha reservation demands.
The BJP had strategically projected strong Maratha representation within the Mahayuti alliance by appointing leaders like Shiv Sena's Eknath Shinde and NCP's Ajit Pawar as deputy chief ministers. Furthermore, the party's induction of prominent Maratha leaders from other political outfits—including Ashok Chavan, Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil, and Narayan Rane—had yielded substantial electoral dividends.
However, the BJP has consistently struggled to cultivate an in-house Maratha leader capable of matching the influence and stature of the Pawar family. "A sizeable Maratha community, especially those connected with institutional and cooperative networks, has always looked upon Sharad Pawar as their leader for support and guidance. It was the same base which also followed Ajit Pawar. Now some unrest in this segment is inevitable," explained Rajendra Kondhare, president of the Akhil Bharatiya Maratha Mahasangh.
Ideological Continuity and Future Prospects
An NCP minister who previously served under Sharad Pawar noted that ideological continuity has kept the party's support base intact despite the organizational split. "Those who don't subscribe to right-wing politics always found a credible alternative in NCP and NCP(SP). Despite the split in the party, we shared a common ideology and electoral base," the minister observed, adding that party cadres traditionally made little distinction between the senior and junior Pawar.
With Assembly elections still approximately three-and-a-half years away, sitting Members of Parliament are unlikely to explore alternatives, including the Sharad Pawar-led NCP(SP). Nevertheless, senior BJP leaders admit there is no clear roadmap forward. "There are no final solutions as we don't know how things will evolve ahead. From what we understand, Sunetra Pawar along with NCP will be able to keep the organization intact and consolidate as it is in power," commented a state minister.
As political observers closely monitor these developments, the coming months will likely determine whether the NCP factions can reach a consensus on merger terms and how the BJP adapts its coalition strategy to address both organizational challenges and community-specific electoral calculations.
