BJP's Tamil Nadu Gambit: Applying Bihar's Winning Caste Formula to Dravidian Politics
With Tamil Nadu's assembly elections approaching in the coming months, the Bharatiya Janata Party is intensifying efforts to consolidate opposition forces against the ruling DMK. The party appears determined to "do a Bihar" in a state where it has historically struggled to establish significant political presence, drawing strategic lessons from its recent electoral success in Bihar.
Learning from Bihar's Social Engineering Success
During the Bihar assembly elections, the BJP and its NDA partners executed a meticulously crafted social coalition that represented virtually every major caste segment in the state. This comprehensive strategy effectively isolated the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan, which primarily relied on Muslim-Yadav voter support.
The NDA's five partners created a formidable alliance: the Lok Janshakti Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha provided Dalit representation through Union minister Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi. The Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha represented Extremely Backward Classes and non-Yadav Other Backward Classes, while the BJP maintained its traditional support among upper castes and the Baniya community.
This precisely calibrated caste coalition delivered an overwhelming majority, with the alliance securing 202 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, demonstrating the electoral potency of well-structured social alliances.
Forging a Tamil Nadu Coalition
In Tamil Nadu's Dravidian political landscape, where alliances have historically played crucial roles, the BJP recognizes that no single party except the DMK or AIADMK at their peak can dominate the Assembly without broad coalition support. To prevent vote-splitting that might benefit the DMK, the BJP is actively pursuing a strategy of inclusion, approaching former alliance partners and breakaway factions to rebuild an expanded NDA.
Two years after their split, the BJP and AIADMK reunited in 2025, announcing that the NDA would contest the upcoming assembly polls under the leadership of former chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS). This alliance represents more than tactical maneuvering and is viewed in Delhi as the primary vehicle for BJP's relevance in the southern state.
The AIADMK brings significant advantages to this partnership, including a substantial voter base among Dalit communities that constitutes approximately 20 percent of Tamil Nadu's population. Meanwhile, AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam (OPS) has publicly declared readiness for reunification with EPS's faction ahead of the 2026 polls, throwing a pointed challenge to both EPS and AMMK general secretary T T V Dhinakaran about their willingness to close ranks under the NDA umbrella.
Expanding the Alliance Framework
The Pattali Makkal Katchi's entry into the NDA provides symbolic momentum, though not without complications. Anbumani Ramadoss's decision to align with the AIADMK-BJP front aims to strengthen the NDA's presence in northern Tamil Nadu, where the PMK traditionally draws support from the Vanniyar community. While this adds crucial social breadth to the coalition during a critical consolidation phase, internal unity within PMK remains uncertain.
Simultaneously, the BJP has reportedly approached TVK's Vijay to join the NDA after he positioned his party as an alternative political force. Vijay hails from a Christian community representing about 6 percent of Tamil Nadu's population and commands substantial popularity among younger voters. Unlike other film star-led parties, Vijay's supporters demonstrate organized and politically active characteristics that could potentially translate into electoral advantage.
Analyst Perspectives on Caste Dynamics
Political analysts emphasize that caste equations consistently influence Tamil Nadu's electoral landscape, though they question the effectiveness of BJP's current approach. Speaking to media outlets, political analyst Kannan R noted that while the saffron party includes leaders from backward classes, it appears to primarily rally Hindus as a monolithic unit—a strategy that has historically proven ineffective in the state.
"Caste and cash remain two important factors in TN's electoral politics and will continue to play a crucial role. I don't think the BJP is trying to bring different castes on the stage, or if it is, it hasn't gained traction so far," Kannan observed.
Another analyst, Shyam Shanmugaa, highlighted the limitations of purely caste-based strategies in Tamil Nadu's urbanized context: "Caste equations are always at play in rural Tamil Nadu. But in urban areas, it does not matter. Tamil Nadu is a heavily urbanised state. Hence, elections cannot be won purely on caste equations."
Shanmugaa further explained that when one caste becomes mobilized in rural constituencies, counter-mobilization typically occurs, making caste-neutral candidates who appeal across communities more likely to succeed. He noted that the BJP continues to be perceived as a Brahmin upper-caste party struggling to mobilize specific OBC communities effectively.
Understanding Tamil Nadu's Caste Landscape
Dalits constitute approximately 19-21% of Tamil Nadu's population, with higher concentrations in districts including Cuddalore, Villupuram, Tiruvallur, and Madurai. The Dravidian political movement has historically engaged with Dalit communities through parties like the Dravida Kazhagam, DMK, and AIADMK.
Thevars, concentrated in southern districts such as Madurai, Theni, Dindigul, Sivaganga, and Ramanathapuram, represent a politically influential Most Backward Class community comprising 10-12% of the population. Several prominent Thevar leaders have been associated with the AIADMK, including former chief minister J Jayalalithaa's close aide V K Sasikala and rebel leader O Panneerselvam.
Vanniyars, primarily based in northern Tamil Nadu, represent one of the largest and most politically active Most Backward Classes, accounting for 12-15% of the state's population. Represented by the PMK, this agrarian community has maintained land ownership despite industrialization and demonstrates strong organizational capacity through sustained political mobilization.
Nadars, a trading community with significant commercial and political influence, comprise 4-6% of the population, concentrated in southern districts including Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, and Virudhunagar. Their political legacy includes prominent figures like former chief minister K Kamaraj, with both Hindu and Christian Nadars maintaining institutional presence.
Gounders, falling under the Backward Classes category, represent 5-7% of Tamil Nadu's population, primarily concentrated in western districts comprising the Kongu Nadu region. Known for agricultural and entrepreneurial presence, the community gained political prominence when Edappadi K Palaniswami, a Gounder, assumed control of the AIADMK following J Jayalalithaa's death.
Electoral Context and Historical Performance
The Election Commission is expected to announce Tamil Nadu's assembly elections for April-May this year. In the 2021 assembly elections, the DMK secured 133 seats while the Congress won 18 seats. The AIADMK obtained 66 seats with 33.5% of the vote share, the PMK secured five seats with 3.8% vote share, and the VCK won four seats with 1% vote share.
As political preparations intensify, the BJP's attempt to transplant Bihar's caste coalition model into Tamil Nadu's distinct political ecosystem represents one of the most significant electoral experiments in contemporary Indian politics. The success of this strategy will depend on navigating complex caste dynamics, managing alliance partnerships, and addressing perceptions about the party's social base in a state with deeply rooted Dravidian political traditions.
