Seemanchal Emerges as Bihar's Political Battleground
As Bihar prepares for the second and final phase of polling on 11 November 2025, all eyes are on the strategically crucial Seemanchal region where 24 assembly constituencies could determine the state's political future. The northeastern part of Bihar, comprising Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnea and Araria districts, has become the epicenter of a fierce contest between Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.
The Muslim Vote Arithmetic
Seemanchal's political significance stems from its unique demographic composition. Muslims constitute approximately 47% of the population in this region, with one-fourth of Bihar's total 2.31 crore Muslim population residing here. The area has historically elected Muslim candidates to both the Assembly and Parliament, making it a prime hunting ground for parties seeking to consolidate minority votes.
In the 2020 assembly elections, AIMIM delivered a stunning performance by winning five Muslim-dominated seats in Seemanchal - Kochidhaman, Amour, Bahadurganj, Baisi, and Jokihat. However, the victory proved short-lived as four of the five MLAs eventually defected to the RJD, leaving only AIMIM's Bihar president Akhtarul Iman from Amour with the party.
Ground Realities and Shifting Loyalties
The political landscape in Seemanchal reveals complex voter dynamics and changing allegiances. At a tea shop near Madrasa Mumbaul Uloom in Kishanganj's Kochadhaman constituency, shopkeeper Mohd Afzal describes the prevailing sentiment as "Patang ka mahaul" - referring to the kite symbol of AIMIM that appears to be flying high among certain sections of voters.
However, not everyone shares this enthusiasm. Abu Affan Farooque, the Jan Suraaj Party candidate from Kochidhaman, asserts that "Owaisi won the seats in 2020 playing on local emotions. But he vanished after elections. People will teach him a lesson this time." This sentiment reflects the challenge facing AIMIM as it tries to convert its 2020 gains into lasting political influence.
Historical Voting Patterns and Current Equations
An analysis of Muslim voting patterns reveals significant fluctuations over the years:
- In 2020 Assembly elections, 62% of Muslims voted for Mahagathbandhan, while AIMIM secured 3% mostly in Seemanchal
- The 2024 Lok Sabha polls saw 68% Muslim votes going to INDIA bloc of Mahagathbandhan
- NDA (including JD(U)) received 17% Muslim support in the general elections
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's strategic inauguration of an airport in Purnea district about two months before the Bihar polls was seen by many as an attempt to woo Seemanchal voters. However, locals like Mohammad Nizami, a driver from Purnea, remained unimpressed, stating "He came days before the election. He thinks people are fools."
The 'Vote Splitting' Controversy
AIMIM faces persistent allegations of playing the role of a vote-splitter that could indirectly benefit the ruling NDA alliance. Political observers note that division of Muslim votes between AIMIM and Mahagathbandhan might create openings for JD(U)-BJP combine in closely contested seats.
Professor Mohammad Sajjad of Aligarh Muslim University offers a nuanced perspective: "My experience says that Muslims of Seemanchal vote wisely. They will only vote for MIM candidate in case they see a close fight with JD-U or RJD candidate." He emphasizes that voters in this region are politically aware of the consequences of their voting choices.
Owaisi has vehemently rejected these allegations in recent interviews. Speaking with Red Mike's Saurabh Shukla, the AIMIM chief expressed remarkable confidence that a "son of Seemanchal" would become chief minister of Bihar on 14 November when results are declared. He cited the example of Madhu Koda, an independent legislator from Jharkhand who became chief minister in 2006 despite being a lone MLA.
The Hyderabad MP's remarks from October 2025 about the "I Love Muhammad" controversy continue to resonate in the region. Owaisi had claimed that while it's easier for someone to say "I love Modi" in India, saying "I love Mohammad" remains challenging - a statement that struck a chord with his support base.
As the election campaign reaches its climax, Seemanchal stands at a crossroads. With AIMIM forming an alliance with the Azad Samaj Party and his Janata Party, and the Mahagathbandhan banking on its traditional Muslim-Yadav combination, the region's 24 seats representing approximately 10% of Bihar's total 243 seats could well determine who forms the next government in Patna.
