With voting nearly complete in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and the Union Territory of Puducherry, attention is gradually shifting to the eagerly awaited exit polls. Typically released half an hour after polling ends, these polls offer an early indication of voter preferences.
Exit Polls: A Mixed Track Record
Exit polls often shape the initial narrative about potential winners, but their accuracy varies. In past elections, some have correctly predicted overall trends, while others have deviated significantly from final results. The last round of assembly elections in these five states provides a useful benchmark for assessing their reliability.
Kerala
Exit polls in Kerala correctly forecast a victory for the Left Democratic Front (LDF) but underestimated its margin. The average projection gave the LDF around 82 seats and the United Democratic Front (UDF) about 56. However, the final results showed the LDF winning 99 seats—17 more than predicted—while the UDF secured only 41, falling short by 15.
Tamil Nadu
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls broadly predicted a win for the DMK-led alliance, though they slightly overestimated its scale. The average projection gave the DMK+ around 166 seats, compared to the actual 159. The AIADMK+ alliance was projected to win about 63 seats but performed better with 75—12 more than expected. While the overall outcome was correctly forecast, exit polls did not fully capture the AIADMK-led bloc's resilience.
Assam
Assam was one of the most accurately predicted elections. Exit polls projected the BJP-led NDA to win around 71 seats and the Congress-led alliance about 54. The final results were remarkably close: the NDA won 75 seats (just four more than projected), and the opposition alliance secured 50 (slightly below expectations).
Puducherry
In Puducherry, exit polls correctly predicted an NDA victory but overestimated its seat tally. The average projection gave the NDA around 21 seats, but it won only 16. The UPA's performance matched predictions, securing nine seats as expected. However, independents—largely ignored by exit polls—won five seats, creating the biggest gap.
West Bengal
West Bengal was the biggest outlier, with exit polls failing to predict both the scale and clarity of the mandate. The average projection suggested a competitive race, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) at around 155 seats and the BJP-led NDA at 126. In reality, the TMC secured a sweeping victory with 216 seats—61 more than projected—while the NDA managed just 77, falling short by 49. The Congress-led alliance was expected to win about 12 seats but ended up with only one.
Overall Assessment
Together, these five states present a mixed picture of exit poll accuracy. While states like Assam and Tamil Nadu saw reasonably accurate forecasts in terms of overall direction, Kerala and Puducherry revealed gaps in estimating margins and seat shares. West Bengal reflected a clear miss on the mandate. As the focus now shifts to the upcoming exit polls, their track record serves as a reminder of both their utility and limitations.
