The upcoming elections for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) are set to witness intense direct contests in nearly 30 key wards. A significant strategic decision by the Congress party and the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) has paved the way for two-cornered fights, reshaping the political battlefield in India's financial capital.
Strategic Withdrawal Reshapes Ward Battles
As many as 29 out of the 227 seats in the crucial BMC polls will see a straight fight, devoid of candidates from the Congress and the Prakash Ambedkar-led VBA. This deliberate move concentrates the electoral contest primarily between the ruling BJP-Shinde Sena alliance and the opposition Shiv Sena (UBT) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in these constituencies.
According to party sources, the Congress has chosen to focus its resources and energy on wards where it has a realistic chance of victory. The strategy involves avoiding seats where the party failed to poll a satisfactory number of votes in the previous election cycle. "We are focusing on areas where we know about our strong voter base. We are fighting the election with full strength and do not want to read too much into this," stated Sachin Sawant, the chief spokesperson for the Mumbai Congress.
Alliance Dynamics and Seat Distribution
The broader alliance for the BMC polls has seen the Congress contesting on 143 seats, while the VBA is fighting on 46 seats. Initially, the VBA was expected to contest 62 seats but faced challenges in finding suitable candidates for 21 wards. They later managed to field nominees in five of these, leading to friendly contests with Congress and other allies in wards 133, 125, 116, 140, and 181.
The geographical spread of the 29 seats set for direct fights is noteworthy. A majority are located in the western suburbs, parts of south Mumbai, and some areas in the eastern suburbs. A senior Sena (UBT) leader highlighted the tactical advantage, noting, "Avoiding vote division on 29 seats will put BJP and Shinde-led Sena in a direct fight with the party led by the Thackerays. In a closely fought ward election, avoiding the division of a few hundred votes can produce a different result."
Historical Context and Shifting Allegiances
An analysis of the 2017 election results for these 29 wards reveals interesting patterns. The BJP had won 13 of these seats, while the then-united Shiv Sena had secured 15. The political split within the Sena has since altered the landscape. Approximately six of the Sena's previously won wards are now held by corporators who have shifted allegiance to the Eknath Shinde-led faction.
The wards previously won by the BJP include numbers 13, 14, 15, 16, 21, 46, 80, 84, 106, 132, 172, 226, and 227. The corporators who have moved to the Shinde Sena represent wards 6, 11, 12, 18, 115, and 117. Wards held by the Thackeray-led Sena (UBT) include 19, 25, 40, 128, 153, 182, 191, 198, and 203. A notable case is ward number 141, which was won by a Congress corporator in 2017. Since that corporator has now joined the Sena (UBT), the Congress has decided not to contest the seat this time.
Congress sources indicate that the party has ensured its presence across all 36 Assembly segments in Mumbai. The decision to leave some seats uncontested is viewed as a strategic push to strengthen other opposition parties in specific pockets. Another Congress leader explained the rationale, stating, "While focusing on our strong areas, the idea is to avoid division of votes which could swing anyway." This calculated approach underscores the high-stakes nature of the BMC elections, where every vote and every seat is being meticulously weighed in the broader battle for control of India's richest municipal corporation.
