As 2025 draws to a close, diplomatic efforts to end the nearly four-year war in Ukraine have intensified, with top leaders suggesting a peace agreement is within reach. However, a stable and lasting peace remains elusive, with critical territorial disputes, especially over the Donbas region, still unresolved.
High-Level Optimism Masks Deep-Rooted Challenges
Following a crucial meeting in Florida on Sunday, December 30, 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump expressed significant progress. Zelenskyy stated that the US and Ukraine were "90 per cent agreed" on a 20-point peace plan and fully aligned on security guarantees. Echoing this sentiment, President Trump went further, claiming a draft agreement to end the conflict was nearly "95 per cent done".
Remarkably, even the Kremlin, known for downplaying peace prospects, aligned with Trump's assessment, indicating negotiations were in their final stages. This rare convergence of statements from the three principal actors—Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow—has created a wave of optimistic optics.
Yet, beneath this surface optimism, few concrete signs point to an imminent settlement. The core dilemma for Ukraine persists: accept painful territorial concessions in the east as demanded by Russian President Vladimir Putin, or continue a grueling war of attrition with ever-mounting human and economic costs.
The Intractable Donbas Question
The most significant roadblock to a final deal is the status of the Donbas. Both Trump and Zelenskyy acknowledged on Sunday that the future of this eastern region remains unresolved. Comprising Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the latter almost fully under Russian control, Donbas has been a flashpoint since 2014.
For Ukraine, ceding Donetsk is not merely about sovereignty; it forms a critical part of its defensive "fortress belt." Losing it could provide Russia a strategic springboard for future military campaigns. For Putin, the capture and claimed "liberation" of Donbas's Russian-speaking population is central to justifying the 2022 invasion and is a non-negotiable element for any peace deal from Moscow's perspective.
Despite consistent pressure from the Trump administration—originally outlined in a 28-point Washington plan urging territorial compromise—Kyiv's determination not to cede land has kept the war ongoing. The battlefield situation continues to set hard limits on what diplomacy can achieve.
Implications for India's Strategic Calculus
A stable resolution in Ukraine would significantly ease the foreign policy tightrope India has walked since the war began. New Delhi has balanced its historic ties with Moscow, including continued imports of Russian oil, with its deepening strategic partnership with the West, all while navigating US tariff pressures.
It is evident that Moscow's ultimate objective is to improve its engagement terms with Washington. India must factor this evolving great-power dynamic into its own strategic planning. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's endorsements of Trump's peace initiatives in Eastern Europe reflect this nuanced calculus, aiming to secure Indian interests in a shifting global order.
As diplomacy continues at full throttle into the new year, the world watches to see if the reported 95% progress can overcome the final 5% hurdle—the fate of Donbas—which has so far proven to be the most difficult part of the equation for a lasting peace in Europe.
