UK Explored Seizing Russian-Linked Shadow Fleet Tanker
British defense sources have confirmed that the United Kingdom actively considered seizing a Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker, a move that could have opened a new front against Moscow as Russia's oil revenues continue to fall. According to a report by The Guardian, military options to capture a rogue ship were identified in discussions involving NATO allies, though a month has passed since the US-led seizure of a Russian tanker in the Atlantic.
Shadow Fleet Operations in European Waters
In January alone, Lloyd's List Intelligence spotted 23 shadow fleet ships using false or fraudulent flags in the Channel or Baltic Sea. Many of these vessels were directly linked to the export of Russian oil, primarily transported by water to China, India, and Turkey. A joint statement signed late last month by the UK, Germany, France, and other NATO countries bordering the Baltic and North seas emphasized that all vessels sailing through these regions should "strictly comply with applicable international law." Despite setting conditions for a potential seizure, no concrete action followed.
Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of the specialist shipping title Lloyd's List, explained the legal basis and hesitation: "The Royal Navy could challenge any number of ships under maritime law because they are in fact stateless. But they haven't, because there are escalatory risks."
Military Readiness and International Incidents
Last month, the Royal Marines held a briefing for British MPs and peers, covering the threat from Russia and the situation in the Arctic and the high north. One attendee noted that the Marines were "champing at the bit" to be given the order to seize a ship. This follows a significant incident a month ago, where the US, with British assistance, chased the Marinera tanker from the Caribbean to the north Atlantic, seizing it between Scotland and Iceland. The tanker was falsely flagged when first approached but was re-registered as Russian during pursuit in a failed evasion attempt.
Meade highlighted the geopolitical sensitivity: Russian complaints after the US seizure were muted, but a UK or European-led operation would be potentially more fraught "because Moscow would probably respond more robustly." He added that risks could be reduced if a seizure took place away from the Baltic or Arctic waters.
Legal Challenges and Diplomatic Moves
On January 22, before the joint statement signing, France detained the Grinch, an oil tanker off the coast of Spain. It had departed from Murmansk in Russia under the flag of Comoros, but a week later, French President Emmanuel Macron told his Ukrainian counterpart it would have to be released due to French law. In late January, UK Defence Secretary John Healey announced Britain would host a meeting of Baltic and Nordic countries to discuss "military options that we might use." He suggested any seized oil could be sold "and put into Ukraine in order to fight Putin's invasion."
Russia's Oil Economy and Shadow Fleet Strategy
Russia produces about 10 million barrels of oil daily, with approximately 5-6 million exported by sea, of which 60% goes to China and India, according to Craig Kennedy, an associate at Harvard University's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the West implemented economic sanctions, including a price cap on Russian seaborne crude exports. In response, Moscow spent an estimated $15 billion (about Rs 1.25 lakh crore) to buy 400 ageing tankers, often over 20 years old, creating its own "shadow fleet."
Gonzalo Saiz Erausquin from the Royal United Services Institute described this fleet: "It's a collection of old, poorly maintained ships that are opaquely owned, often underinsured and flying flags from jurisdictions either with weak controls or enforcement efforts, increasingly taking up false flags." Kennedy noted that while the idea was taken from Iran and Venezuela, the Russian shadow fleet is essentially separate.
Vulnerabilities and Economic Impact
The evasion of regulations that makes the shadow fleet attractive to Moscow also renders it vulnerable. A ship's flag acts as its jurisdiction, but if using false or multiple flags, it becomes stateless and theoretically seizable, though legal interpretations vary in European countries. It remains uncertain how much capturing one or two shadow fleet vessels would hurt Moscow's economy. Since late November, seven shadow fleet tankers have been struck by drones, with Ukraine claiming responsibility for four, including the Qendil attacked in the Mediterranean.
Kennedy's data on oil export volumes shows no significant drop-off, with Russian exports holding at over 5 million barrels daily, though down from a 6 million peak in autumn. There are signs Moscow is re-registering shadow fleet tankers under the Russian flag to prevent seizure, as seen with the Marinera and nine other vessels in the Caribbean reflagged in December and January.
Broader Economic and Sanctions Context
More than 200 Russia-linked shadow fleet vessels remain operational, but Russia's mainstream, own-flagged fleet is expanding, now accounting for 51% of volumes, with the price cap considered easy to flout. This British sabre-rattling comes as Russia's economy appears more vulnerable, with its war boom faded and economic growth faltering. Falling global oil prices, partly due to greater supply from Venezuela, are hurting the Russian treasury.
Yuliia Pavytska, a sanctions specialist at Kyiv School of Economics Institute, reported that oil and gas revenues for the Kremlin "fell by 24% in 2025" to 8.5 trillion rubles, accounting for 22% of state income, down from 41% in 2022. She noted the EU is considering a total ban on providing maritime services like insurance to Russian ships, which would be "very painful" for Moscow, especially if combined with military action.
