The political landscape in Bangladesh has taken a volatile turn, marked by incendiary rhetoric and violent incidents. This unfolding situation presents a complex challenge for neighbouring India, which must navigate the turbulence without losing sight of its core strategic and security interests in the region.
A Shooting That Fuels Speculation
On December 12, 2025, a significant event added fuel to the existing political fire in Dhaka. Osman Hadi, an activist associated with the Inquilab Moncho group, was shot. This incident, occurring in the capital, was not just an isolated act of violence but one that is poised to have lasting repercussions.
As noted by commentator Swapan Dasgupta, the speculation surrounding who was responsible for the shooting is unlikely to fade quickly. Regardless of how events in Bangladesh progress through 2026, the mystery of Hadi's shooting is expected to persist, potentially taking unexpected and intriguing turns that could further complicate the political narrative.
The Broader Canvas of Political Choreography
Dasgupta draws a parallel to political conspiracies, suggesting that while some follow a predetermined script, others spiral out of control due to flawed choreography. These missteps often trigger a chain of unintended consequences, creating scenarios that are difficult to predict or manage. The current climate in Bangladesh appears to risk such a deviation, where rhetoric and actions could escalate beyond the control of any single actor.
For India, this represents a delicate diplomatic and strategic tightrope. The bilateral relationship with Bangladesh is multifaceted, encompassing security, trade, connectivity, and shared cultural history. Instability across the border directly impacts India's eastern states and its broader regional posture.
Why India's Strategic Focus is Non-Negotiable
Amid the noise and distraction of daily political developments, the core imperative for New Delhi remains clear: safeguarding its long-term strategic interests. These include:
- Security Cooperation: Maintaining robust counter-terrorism and border management ties.
- Connectivity Projects: Ensuring the continuity of key infrastructure initiatives that bolster regional trade and integration.
- Countering External Influence: Navigating the geopolitical landscape to prevent undue external influence in a strategically located neighbour.
- Economic Partnerships: Protecting significant Indian investments and trade flows with Bangladesh.
The coming months will be a test of India's diplomatic resolve. The focus must remain on fostering stability and a constructive partnership, irrespective of the internal political actors in power. Engaging with all legitimate stakeholders while firmly advocating for peaceful democratic processes will be crucial.
In conclusion, while the shooting of Osman Hadi and the accompanying heated rhetoric will dominate headlines, they should not become the sole prism through which India views its relationship with Bangladesh. A measured, long-term vision that prioritizes enduring national interests over reactive diplomacy is essential as the situation next door continues to evolve.
