In the complex theatre of South Asian geopolitics, India's relationship with Bangladesh stands as a critical pillar for regional stability and security. However, a prevailing tendency to adopt a defensive or reactive posture, especially following key political events like elections, could undermine New Delhi's long-term strategic interests. As Bangladesh consolidates its political direction post-polls, the moment demands that India shifts from a back-foot stance to one of confident and generous engagement.
The Perils of a Reactive Posture
Historically, India's approach to its eastern neighbour has often been characterized by caution and reactivity, particularly during periods of political transition in Dhaka. This wait-and-watch strategy, while seemingly prudent, creates a vacuum that other global powers are all too eager to fill. The most prominent and active of these is China, which has pursued a relentless and generously funded campaign to deepen its influence across Bangladesh.
Beijing's playbook involves massive infrastructure investments, military cooperation, and economic partnerships that appeal directly to Dhaka's development goals. In contrast, when India is perceived as hesitant or conditional in its support, especially after Bangladeshi elections, it risks being viewed as an unreliable or fair-weather friend. This perception can push Bangladesh closer into China's strategic embrace, a scenario that directly contravenes India's core security and economic interests in the Bay of Bengal region.
Key Areas for Proactive Indian Diplomacy
To counter this dynamic and build an enduring partnership, India must lead with a strategy of proactive generosity. Several critical areas demand immediate and sustained attention.
First and foremost is the long-pending issue of river water sharing, specifically the Teesta River agreement. This is not merely a bilateral technicality but a deeply emotional and economic concern for Bangladesh. The inability to finalize this deal, largely due to objections from West Bengal, has been a persistent sore point. A breakthrough here, achieved through determined high-level diplomacy with all Indian stakeholders, would demonstrate a commitment that resonates far beyond diplomatic circles, touching the lives of millions of Bangladeshis.
Secondly, economic connectivity must be accelerated. While projects like cross-border rail links and power transmission lines are underway, their pace and scale need a significant boost. Simplifying trade procedures, removing non-tariff barriers, and promoting greater Indian investment in Bangladesh can create a web of mutual economic dependency that benefits both nations. This economic intertwining serves as a stronger foundation for ties than transient political alignments.
Beyond Government: Engaging the People
A truly resilient bilateral relationship cannot be built on government-to-government interactions alone. India must also invest in people-to-people connections. This involves fostering greater cultural exchanges, educational scholarships, and tourism. Easing visa regimes for Bangladeshi citizens, particularly students, medical patients, and tourists, can build immense goodwill. When the people of Bangladesh feel a genuine connection and benefit from the relationship, it creates a buffer against political fluctuations and anti-India narratives.
Furthermore, India should proactively support Bangladesh's development aspirations on the global stage. Advocating for Dhaka's interests in international forums, supporting its smooth transition from Least Developed Country (LDC) status, and collaborating on climate change resilience are areas where India can be a dependable partner. This contrasts with China's often transactional approach, highlighting India's role as a benevolent and consistent regional ally.
The High Cost of Inaction
The consequences of India maintaining a passive or hesitant stance are severe. A Bangladesh that feels neglected or taken for granted by New Delhi will naturally seek alternatives. China's deep pockets and no-strings-attached (on the surface) diplomacy offer a compelling alternative. Increased Chinese naval presence in the Bay of Bengal, greater strategic inroads through infrastructure like the Chittagong port, and a Bangladesh compelled to balance between two giants would represent a significant strategic setback for India.
The leadership in Dhaka, particularly under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has historically been cooperative on Indian security concerns, including action against insurgent groups. Preserving and strengthening this cooperation requires consistent and visible Indian support, not just during crises but as a steady feature of the relationship.
In conclusion, the post-election landscape in Bangladesh is not a time for Indian reticence but for bold, forward-looking statecraft. By taking the initiative on thorny issues like Teesta, turbocharging economic integration, and winning the hearts and minds of the Bangladeshi public, India can secure its eastern flank and build a partnership that withstands the test of time and geopolitical competition. The choice is between shaping the future of the region or reacting to the outcomes shaped by others. For a nation with global aspirations, the path forward must be one of strategic confidence and proactive engagement with Bangladesh.
