Bangladesh's 12th general election, held on January 7, 2024, has reconfigured the political landscape in Dhaka, with profound implications for its giant neighbour, India. The poll, which saw Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secure a fourth consecutive term, was conducted under unique circumstances, marked by a boycott from the main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). This electoral shift is not merely a domestic affair for Bangladesh; it carries significant weight for New Delhi's foreign policy, security, and economic interests in the region.
The Anatomy of the 2024 Bangladesh Election
The election day was notably quiet, with voter turnout officially recorded at around 40 percent. This figure, however, tells only part of the story. The pre-election period was marred by considerable political unrest and violence. The BNP and its allies, demanding a neutral caretaker government to oversee the polls, organised major protests throughout 2023. These demonstrations often turned violent, leading to a government crackdown that included mass arrests of opposition figures and activists.
Consequently, the election unfolded with the Awami League competing largely against smaller parties and independent candidates, many of whom were from the ruling party itself. Sheikh Hasina's Awami League won an overwhelming majority, securing 223 out of 300 parliamentary seats. This victory, while decisive, has been viewed through a lens of controversy by many Western nations and the absent opposition, who have questioned the electoral process's fairness.
India's Multifaceted Stakes in a Stable Bangladesh
For India, the outcome in Dhaka is of paramount importance. The bilateral relationship, nurtured over Hasina's long tenure, rests on several critical pillars where New Delhi has substantial stakes.
Security and Counter-Terrorism: A primary concern for India is the prevention of its northeastern states from becoming a safe haven for insurgent groups. Under Hasina's government, Bangladesh has cooperated closely with India to crack down on Indian militant outfits using its soil. A change in regime, particularly one less friendly to India, could potentially reverse these gains and re-open old security vulnerabilities.
Connectivity and Economic Integration: India has invested heavily in connectivity projects with Bangladesh, viewing it as a gateway to its landlocked northeastern states and a crucial partner in its 'Act East' policy. Key initiatives include:
- Rail and road links for smoother transit of goods.
- Energy cooperation, including cross-border electricity grids.
- The use of Bangladeshi ports like Chattogram and Mongla for Indian cargo.
Political stability in Bangladesh is essential for the continuity and further development of these projects, which are vital for regional trade and economic growth.
Countering Chinese Influence: China has made significant inroads into Bangladesh through massive infrastructure investments under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While Dhaka maintains a balancing act, India views a friendly government as a buffer against excessive Chinese strategic influence in the Bay of Bengal region, which is directly adjacent to India's eastern coastline.
The Diplomatic Tightrope: Engagement vs. Principles
India's swift congratulation to Sheikh Hasina after her victory stood in stark contrast to the reactions from the United States, the United Kingdom, and other Western democracies. These nations have expressed concern over the electoral process and the political climate. This divergence highlights the delicate diplomatic tightrope India walks.
On one hand, India values stability and a predictable partnership in an immediate neighbour. On the other, it faces criticism for seemingly prioritising strategic interests over democratic principles. New Delhi's stance is clear: it engages with the elected government of the day, emphasising that the election was an internal matter of Bangladesh. This pragmatic approach is driven by the hard realities of geography and the high stakes involved in the relationship.
The future of India-Bangladesh ties now hinges on how the Hasina government addresses domestic reconciliation and economic challenges. Continued internal strife or economic distress in Bangladesh could spill over into India, affecting border security and creating humanitarian issues. Therefore, India's interest lies not just in a friendly government, but in a stable and prosperous Bangladesh.
In conclusion, Dhaka's recent electoral shift solidifies a political status quo that India is comfortable with. While the election itself was contentious, New Delhi's focus remains firmly on protecting its security, fostering economic integration, and managing great power competition in its backyard. The coming years will test whether this transactional stability can be coupled with broader political inclusivity in Bangladesh, a outcome that would ultimately serve the long-term interests of both nations.
