The release of the United States' new National Security Strategy (NSS) under President Donald Trump's second term outlines a world moving towards greater disorder, compelling India to fundamentally reconsider its longstanding policy towards Pakistan. This shift, marked by a transactional American worldview, dilutes international pressure on Islamabad and alters the strategic calculus in South Asia.
A Transactional America and the End of Strategic Ambiguity
Analyst Vinay Kaura, writing on December 30, 2025, argues that Trump's presidency signifies the demise of the post-World War II order where the US was structurally invested in maintaining the international system. The US now views its alliances as balance sheet items, where commitments are drawbacks and loyalty is conditional. For nearly two decades, India relied on an informal dependence on America's global role while maintaining its doctrine of "strategic autonomy." This uneasy equilibrium persisted as long as Washington was satisfied with the ambiguity.
However, the Trump administration is demanding not just deference from New Delhi but also burden-sharing in the Indo-Pacific. The perception of a weakened Quad was reinforced when Trump skipped its leaders' summit in New Delhi, despite the NSS formally mentioning the grouping. This unraveling of the old understanding marks the end of India's decade-long comfort with American global power.
Implications for Regional Security and Pakistan's Calculus
The new American posture has direct and alarming consequences for regional stability. A less focused and more distracted America would dilute pressure on South Asia regarding nuclear proliferation and crisis control. In such a scenario, it becomes increasingly difficult for the international community to punish Pakistan for high-stakes asymmetric games.
China, which views power as the ultimate arbiter, will see the US shift not as restraint but as a contraction of American resolve. This likely worsens India's challenges with Beijing, including potential amplified aggression in the Himalayas. The unwritten presumption that the US would aid India in a border dispute with China is now erased.
Critically, the Pakistan military would interpret the NSS wording as the US ceasing to endorse New Delhi's prominent position in South Asia. Instead, Washington is seen as propping up Rawalpindi against India as a reward for its sycophancy towards Trump. Pakistan's political and economic instability, once a liability, is now an asset in a disunited world where enforcement of norms is diminishing.
A Call for a Sober Indian Reassessment
The world India now faces is colder, operating on a classical balance of power where outcomes are determined by capability, alignment, and timing. America's domestic insularity provides a pretext for bolder actions by the Pakistani military, while India finds itself in a precarious position: expected to restore regional balance but lacking full enforcement agency.
Kaura, an assistant professor at Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice in Jodhpur, concludes that India must revisit its Pakistan policy devoid of emotion. The hope that the international community will control Pakistan's irredentist conduct is growing dangerously weak. History offers no solace; previous US retreats into transactionalism led the world into peril. For India, this is a call for sobriety. For Pakistan, it is a seductive opening. The fragile international order reminds us that when order recedes, it is raw power—unevenly distributed and poorly controlled—that takes its place.
