In a complex geopolitical chess game, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has turned a significant external threat into a powerful tool for internal control. The strategy revolves around the extensive sanctions regime imposed by the United States, which Maduro's government now uses to bind the country's economic and political elite to his rule.
The Sanctions Trap: Loyalty as the Only Currency
For years, the United States has maintained a stringent sanctions policy against Venezuela, targeting its vital oil industry and key government figures. The primary goal was to pressure Maduro into holding free and fair elections and to weaken his authoritarian regime. However, the unintended consequence has been the creation of a closed economic system where the state, under Maduro's United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), controls all access to foreign currency and international trade.
This control is absolute. As reported, the state now monopolizes all oil revenues and dollar transactions. For any businessperson, company, or even regional governor to engage in profitable commerce or access hard currency, they must obtain explicit permission from the central government. This permission is not granted freely; it is exchanged for unwavering political loyalty.
A Patronage Network Forged in Crisis
The mechanism is straightforward but effective. The government, through entities like the state-run oil company PDVSA, decides who gets contracts, who can import essential goods, and who can profit from the country's vast but mismanaged resources. This has given birth to a new class of beneficiaries often referred to as the "Boliburguesía" – a portmanteau of Bolivarian and bourgeoisie.
These individuals, including some who were once opposition figures, have been co-opted into the system. Their wealth and survival depend on maintaining good relations with the ruling circle. This system ensures that even those who might privately disagree with Maduro have a powerful financial incentive to publicly support him and suppress dissent. The sanctions, intended to isolate the regime, have instead helped it consolidate a patronage network that is difficult to break.
Political Consequences and a Stifled Opposition
This economic stranglehold has profound political implications. The traditional Venezuelan opposition, which once posed a significant challenge to Chavismo, finds itself starved of resources and influence. Key opposition leaders are exiled, imprisoned, or barred from holding office. More critically, the business community that historically funded opposition campaigns is now largely neutered, its fortunes tied to the state's goodwill.
The result is a political landscape where meaningful internal challenge to Maduro is increasingly rare. The government recently set a presidential election for July 28, 2024, but the process has been widely criticized. The leading opposition candidate, María Corina Machado, remains banned from running despite winning a primary vote. Her designated substitute, Corina Yoris, was also blocked from registering, forcing the opposition to rally behind another candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, under immense time pressure.
This controlled electoral environment, managed by a loyal National Electoral Council, allows Maduro to present a facade of democracy while minimizing any real risk to his power. The loyalty of the elite, secured by economic necessity, translates into a lack of powerful domestic actors willing to destabilize the status quo.
Analysts observe that the US policy, while morally aimed at promoting democracy, has in practice helped Maduro eliminate independent power centers. The state is now the sole economic engine, and Maduro controls the fuel. This dynamic makes the idea of a clean electoral transition, as hoped for by the US and its allies, increasingly unlikely. The Venezuelan president has successfully transformed external pressure into an internal glue, binding the country's ruling class to his political project for their own survival, thereby ensuring the continuity of his rule amidst ongoing national crisis.
