Could Pahalgam Happen Again? Assessing Pakistan's Military Motivations
On April 22, 2025, India was shaken by the brutal murder of 26 innocent civilians in Pahalgam. This horrific terrorist attack prompted intense deliberation of response options and elevated operational readiness across military channels to prevent uncontrolled escalation. A fortnight later, Operation Sindoor was launched, demonstrating decisive leadership backed by a capable military apparatus.
The Pakistan Army's Historical Pattern
If the Pakistan army were guided by reason and genuine national interest, it would desist from sponsoring such terrorist acts in the future for the sake of its own people. However, history warns otherwise. The vested interests of the Pakistan army, particularly its need to remain politically central, have repeatedly driven it to choose confrontation over conciliation.
Pakistan's founding myth has long rested on an anti-India narrative, cultivated across generations and institutional structures. Crucially, the army seized power early in the nation's history and has never fully relinquished control. Even when civilian faces occupy the corridors of power, the military ensures they remain pliant. Strong political figures who challenged that dominance have been systematically removed—the Bhutto family paid with their blood, and former Prime Minister Imran Khan has been jailed.
Current Military Posture and Vulnerabilities
Will the Pakistan army undertake another misadventure akin to Pahalgam? On the surface, the Pakistan army appears unassailable—confident domestically and courted internationally. Its leadership enjoys the confidence of powerful global political executives and has basked in international attention by hosting peace talks between major powers.
Shorn of consistent ideology, the Pakistan army can pivot strategically for profit, dictating terms to pliant civilian governments and making decisions without meaningful accountability. The aftermath of Operation Sindoor has been smoothed over with deft narrative management, leaving the military establishment comfortably ensconced in its position of power.
Yet beneath this veneer of strength lies significant fragility. Several critical vulnerabilities could destabilize the Pakistan army's position:
- Economic Precarity: Pakistan's economic condition remains dire. Any fresh regional crisis, such as current turmoil in the Gulf, would worsen this precarious situation, potentially fueling widespread public unrest.
- Border Volatility: The Afghan border remains highly unstable. The conflict with the Baloch National Army is intensifying, while indiscriminate airstrikes on civilians have deepened local resentment. Tehrike-Taliban Pakistan continues to strike with impunity, and attacks on Kabul by the Pakistan air force have further strained relations with the Afghan government.
- Political Opposition: The Imran Khan factor, though seemingly dormant, represents a persistent challenge. His Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party retains mass popularity despite being denied electoral victory through military machinations. His supporters could again take to the streets, challenging the army's supposed infallibility.
- Blowback from Proxy Groups: The terrorist organizations nurtured to destabilize India may turn inward when deprived of patronage, potentially biting the very hand that feeds them.
The Escalation Calculus
Any of these scenarios would call into question the Pakistan army's claim to be the sole arbiter of national interest and would undermine its standing. This perceived erosion of authority could prompt military leadership to sponsor a grave terror strike in India—an act specifically designed to invite a punitive Indian response.
Such a strategy would thrust the Pakistan army back into the national spotlight as the defender of the nation, thereby restoring its perceived relevance and consolidating power. If such an attack occurs, Pakistan would likely face far harsher consequences than before, with its civilian population suffering grievously. However, for self-serving generals, national pain may be an acceptable price if it secures the Pakistan army's return to primacy.
The question remains: Will Pahalgam happen again? The answer perhaps lies not with external forces, but within the complex calculus of Pakistan's military establishment and its perpetual struggle to maintain dominance over the nation's political landscape.
