China's Military Purge: Unprecedented Removal of Top General Zhang Youxia Sparks Theories
In a dramatic development, China has initiated an investigation into General Zhang Youxia, the only remaining Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), for alleged serious violations of discipline and law. This move has sent shockwaves through the Chinese military establishment, marking an unprecedented event in the ongoing purges of senior officials.
The Unprecedented Nature of the Investigation
Zhang Youxia, a 75-year-old veteran who joined the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in 1968, holds significant seniority as a general and was a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party Central Committee. His removal is notable not only for his high rank but also for his personal and professional ties to Chinese President Xi Jinping, with their fathers having known each other. The investigation also includes Liu Zhenli, the chief of the CMC's Joint Staff Department, both of whom are decorated war heroes from the PLA campaigns against Vietnam in the late 1970s.
Official state media, such as the PLA Daily, has framed this as part of Xi Jinping's long-standing anti-corruption campaign, which targets both high-ranking officials and lower-level personnel. Since 2023, the list of purged figures has grown to include former Defence Minister Li Shangfu, former Foreign Affairs Minister Qin Gang, and PLA Rocket Force generals. The editorial emphasized a "zero tolerance" approach, stating that the actions "seriously betrayed the trust and expectations of the Party Central Committee."
Theories Behind the Purge
Despite the official corruption narrative, numerous theories have emerged to explain Zhang's removal. One perspective suggests that Zhang's influence may have posed a threat to Xi Jinping's authority, with language in the editorial hinting at undermining Xi's leadership. Another theory points to inefficiencies in Taiwan-related planning, as China intensifies its claims over the island. Analysts like Anushka Saxena from the Takshashila Institution note that corruption in war planning, such as budget skimming or weapons procurement issues, could have prompted the purge.
Factional rivalries within the PLA also play a role. Zhang Youxia and his successor, Zhang Shengmin, are part of the "Shaanxi gang," a clique that includes Xi Jinping and was previously dominant in the CMC. The removal of Zhang Youxia might be an effort to check this group's influence. Dennis Wilder, a former CIA China analyst, suggests that while winning factional wars gave Zhang authority, it also made him a potential threat to Xi.
Impact on the Central Military Commission and Military Morale
The CMC, now reduced to only two members—Xi Jinping as Chairman and Zhang Shengmin as Vice Chairman—is at its lowest strength in recent history. This body oversees critical military functions like weapons procurement and combat preparedness, raising concerns about operational health. The absence of a Defence Minister from the CMC, following Li Shangfu's dismissal, adds to the uncertainty.
Questions linger about the morale within the PLA, as purges have led to the disappearance of numerous generals promoted by Xi since 2022. Saxena highlights that at least 14 generals have been removed, and 23 have effectively vanished, complicating war planning and strategic posturing in regions like the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
What This Says About Xi Jinping's Leadership
Contrary to suggestions of waning authority, some analysts argue that Xi's willingness to purge close allies strengthens his image as a committed anti-corruption leader. It demonstrates his ability to enact significant political changes without facing challengers. However, the continuous removals may foster internal doubts about Xi's leadership choices and the safety of officials, potentially impacting military cohesion and efficiency.
In summary, the investigation into Zhang Youxia reflects deep-seated issues within China's military and political systems, from corruption and factionalism to strategic inefficiencies. As China navigates these challenges, the implications for its global power projection and internal stability remain closely watched by observers worldwide.
