A leading economic think tank has stated that the ongoing political and military crisis in Venezuela is unlikely to have a significant impact on India's material economy or its energy security. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), in a detailed note, assured that India's strategic reduction in trade with the South American nation over recent years has created a buffer.
Drastic Decline in Bilateral Trade
The report highlights a steep fall in commercial exchanges between the two countries. In the fiscal year 2024-2025, India's imports from Venezuela stood at a mere $364.5 million, a staggering 81.3% drop from the $1.4 billion recorded in 2023-2024. Of this amount, crude oil constituted $255.3 million.
On the export front, India sent goods worth $95.3 million to Venezuela, with pharmaceuticals leading the pack at a value of $41.4 million. "Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India's economy or energy security," GTRI concluded.
From Major Partner to Minimal Trade
This represents a dramatic shift from the 2000s and 2010s, when India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude. Indian public sector companies like ONGC Videsh held significant stakes in Venezuela's prolific Orinoco belt oil fields. However, US sanctions imposed since 2019 forced New Delhi to drastically scale back its imports and commercial engagements to avoid secondary sanctions, steadily curbing all trade.
Geopolitical Motives and Future Caution for India
The think tank's analysis follows the recent large-scale US military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. GTRI pointed out that Venezuela's enormous 18% share of global proven oil reserves—more than Saudi Arabia or Russia—was central to the US action.
"The United States has signed trade deals with partners such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom, getting commitments from them to buy US petroleum products and LNG, without having sufficient crude oil or refining capacity," the note explained. "Against this backdrop, Venezuela represents a critical source of upstream crude for the USA. Free access to Venezuelan oil was thus a central motivation for the US."
Looking ahead, GTRI warned that global competition for raw materials and energy will intensify. It urged India to proceed with caution, protect its strategic autonomy, and focus on securing access to critical resources without succumbing to external geopolitical pressures.
