Stock Market Live Updates: The GIFT Nifty indicates a subdued start for stock markets on Tuesday. Analysts believe the near-term trend will remain volatile as geopolitical events surrounding the US-Iran conflict continue to shape market expectations. The Nifty may encounter resistance in the 24,115–24,150 zone, and a convincing breakout above 24,150 is necessary for a stronger rally. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 24,000; a breach below this level could trigger further weakness.
Nifty Outlook: Consolidation with Positive Bias
According to Bajaj Broking, the Nifty formed a bullish candlestick pattern that remained within the previous session's price range, signaling consolidation and buying demand emerging near the 20-day EMA. The index is consolidating in the broad range of 23,600–24,400 amid stock-specific action during the quarterly earnings season. A move above Friday's high of 24,206 could open upside toward 24,400, while a breach below last week's low of 23,813 may lead to a decline toward 23,600. Short-term support is in the 23,600–23,500 range, a confluence of the recent major low and the 38.2% retracement of the last three weeks' pullback (22,183–24,601).
Stock-Specific Action on Expiry Day
Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angle One, noted that Monday began positively with further traction in the initial hours, but prices remained range-bound thereafter, closing with gains of around 0.80% just below the 24,100 mark. The Nifty snapped its three-day losing streak, which is bullish. Prices continue to hold above the 20 DEMA and the 38.2% retracement of the recent rally from lows near 22,200, indicating underlying strength. The 23,800–23,700 zone is immediate support, and as long as this holds, minor dips are likely to be bought. On the upside, the bearish gap from last week in the 24,300–24,400 zone, coinciding with the 50 EMA, is immediate resistance. Beyond that, last week's high near 24,600, which aligns with the 61.8% retracement of the fall from 26,000, remains a stiff hurdle. A decisive move above this level is required for the uptrend to regain momentum. Until then, prices are likely to consolidate within a range with a positive bias. On monthly expiry day, heightened activity is expected in individual stocks due to rollovers and position adjustments. Traders are advised to focus on a stock-specific approach.
Key Levels to Watch
- NIFTY: Support: 23,900–23,800; Resistance: 24,300–24,400
- BANKNIFTY: Support: 56,000–55,800; Resistance: 56,900–57,200
US Stock Market Rally Loses Momentum
The record-setting rally in US equities lost momentum on Monday as fresh uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict weighed on sentiment. Oil prices moved sharply higher. The S&P 500 managed a modest gain of 0.1%, closing at an all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 62 points, or 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to a fresh record. The most significant market action was in the energy sector, with oil prices climbing more than 2.5% as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely inaccessible to commercial tanker traffic. This disruption has trapped a substantial volume of crude in the Middle East, limiting supplies. Iranian oil exports face restrictions under the US naval blockade. Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade, with broader negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program deferred. However, US President Donald Trump appears unlikely to accept the offer. Over the weekend, Trump instructed US envoys not to travel to Pakistan, despite Islamabad's mediating role. Brent crude for June delivery rose 2.8% to settle at $108.23 a barrel, while the more actively traded July contract gained 2.6% to $101.69. Before the conflict, Brent crude was trading at roughly $70 per barrel; prices have since surged, briefly approaching $120 at moments of heightened tension.
Where Are Sensex, Nifty Headed?
Markets are expected to maintain a gradual upward move, supported by hopes of resolution, positive global cues, and sector or stock-specific news flows. Renewable energy, metals, and mining stocks are likely to remain in focus, while summer-related plays may continue to benefit from demand for air conditioners, fans, cold beverages, packaged water, and power equipment. Indian equities ended higher on Monday, with the Nifty 50 rising 0.8%. The rally was broad-based, with all major sectors ending in the green. The Nifty Midcap 100 gained 1.5%, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 advanced 1.9%, reflecting strong participation from the broader market. Among sectoral performers, Nifty Pharma led with gains of 2.6%, followed by Nifty Consumer Durables up 2.5% and Nifty IT higher by 2.2%, recovering after last week's sell-off. In a positive macro development, India signed a Free Trade Agreement with New Zealand, granting duty-free access for all Indian exports. New Zealand has also committed to invest $20 billion in India over the next 15 years. Investors will track upcoming results from UltraTech Cement, Coal India, Varun Beverages, AU Small Finance Bank, and Bajaj Housing Finance, along with economic data including the Bank of Japan interest rate decision and CPI data, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Bank Nifty Outlook
According to Bajaj Broking, the Bank Nifty formed a second consecutive high-wave candlestick pattern with a higher high and higher low, signaling consolidation and buying demand near the 20-day EMA. The index is consolidating in the broad range of 54,500–57,500 amid stock-specific action during the quarterly earnings season for banking stocks. A move above the last two sessions' almost identical high of 56,475 could open upside toward 57,000 and 57,500. On the downside, a breach below last week's low of 55,750 may lead to a decline toward 54,500. Short-term support is in the 54,500–54,000 zone, a confluence of the recent low and the 38.2% retracement of the last three weeks' pullback (49,955–57,456).
Market Overview
Foreign portfolio investors were net sellers on Monday, offloading equities worth Rs 1,151 crore, while domestic institutional investors provided support by purchasing shares worth Rs 4,124 crore. US markets ended Monday on a mixed but largely positive note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting modest gains in quiet trading as investors paused ahead of a packed week featuring corporate earnings, key economic data, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and ongoing Middle East developments. Asian equities hovered near their highest levels since late February as investors monitored geopolitical developments and awaited central bank decisions and earnings from major technology firms. Crude oil prices continued to climb on Tuesday as hopes for an early resolution to the US-Iran conflict faded. With the Strait of Hormuz still largely disrupted, concerns over supply from the vital Middle East region remained elevated. Gold prices were largely unchanged as investors awaited greater clarity on stalled diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. Market attention is also on this week's major central bank meetings to assess whether geopolitical tensions could alter the interest rate outlook.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes, or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.
