Stock Market Live Updates: GIFT Nifty signals a muted start for Sensex and Nifty on Tuesday. Rising oil prices today may weigh on market sentiment. Market experts have expressed optimism that the benchmarks may see a gradual rise, with near-term direction hinging on three key factors: cooling oil prices, resilient domestic economic indicators, and greater clarity following state election outcomes.
Monday's Market Recovery
Indian equities ended Monday on a firm note. The recovery was largely driven by a pullback in crude oil prices from last week's elevated levels and an improvement in overall risk appetite. Sentiment also found some support from slight easing in geopolitical tensions after indications from the US about facilitating ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz.
Asian Markets Decline
Asian equities moved lower on Tuesday, while crude prices softened slightly but continued to hover well above the $100-per-barrel mark. Washington and Tehran pursued diplomatic efforts even as tensions persisted around the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants also kept a close watch on the Japanese yen, which had briefly strengthened in the previous session, fuelling speculation that authorities in Tokyo may have intervened again to support the currency.
MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan slipped 0.3%. Australian stocks declined 0.4% in relatively thin trading conditions, while markets in Japan and South Korea remained shut due to holidays. Futures for major global indices pointed to a cautious tone. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures both edged lower by about 0.1%, while EURO STOXX 50 futures dropped 0.2% and FTSE futures fell 0.75%, according to a Reuters report.
Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices
Tensions in the Gulf remained elevated, with fresh strikes reported from both the US and Iran on Monday as they continued their standoff over control of the Strait of Hormuz, accompanied by competing maritime blockades. This came shortly after US President Donald Trump initiated efforts to help vessels stranded in the critical energy corridor move safely. Shipping major Maersk said that the Alliance Fairfax, a US-flagged vehicle carrier operated by its subsidiary Farrell Lines, successfully exited the Gulf through the Strait under the protection of US military escorts on Monday.
In commodity markets, oil prices eased after a sharp surge in the previous session driven by fears of supply disruptions. Brent crude declined 0.5% to $113.85 per barrel, while US crude dropped 1.3% to $105.03. Apart from geopolitical developments, investors were also preparing for a busy earnings calendar, with companies such as Advanced Micro Devices and Pfizer scheduled to announce their results later in the day.
Bank Nifty Outlook
According to Bajaj Broking, the Bank Nifty formed a small bear candle with a long upper shadow, highlighting intraday volatility and selling pressure at higher levels. Overall, the Bank Nifty is expected to extend consolidation in the broad range of 54,000-57,500 amid stock-specific action as the quarterly earnings session of banking stocks progresses. Within the consolidation, a move above Monday's high of 55,602 will signal an extension of the pullback towards the 56,500 levels. Immediate support is placed in the range of 54,500–54,000, being the confluence of the recent low and 38.2% retracement of the last three weeks' pullback (49,955-57,456). A breach below the key support area of 54,000 will signal an extension of the decline towards 52,500 levels, being the gap area of April 8.
Factors Driving Stock Markets
According to Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, markets are likely to maintain a gradual upward bias in the near term, driven by three key factors: moderating crude oil prices, strong domestic indicators such as record GST collections and healthy April auto sales, and improved political clarity following state election outcomes. He added that a BJP victory in three out of five states could reinforce political stability and lift sentiment, while robust GST collections and auto sales point to resilient demand.
Sensex, Nifty Round-up from Monday
Sensex and Nifty staged a recovery on Monday, with the Sensex rising 356 points and the Nifty closing above the 24,100 mark, supported by buying in blue-chip stocks and election trends that aligned with market expectations. Among Sensex constituents, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro, Eternal and Maruti emerged as top gainers. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and ITC were among the lagging stocks.
Investor sentiment remained buoyant, aided by favourable election signals from West Bengal and stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, which helped markets look past concerns stemming from the Middle East. However, intermittent profit booking was seen amid uncertainty around the US 'Project Freedom' initiative aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments.
Nifty Outlook
According to Bajaj Broking, the Nifty formed a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, highlighting intraday volatility as the index consolidates with positive bias around the 20-day EMA. In line with expectations, Nifty is witnessing consolidation in the broad range of 23,600-24,400 amid stock-specific action as the quarterly earnings session progresses. Within the consolidation, a move above Monday's high of 24,290 will signal an extension of the pullback towards the upper band of the range placed around 24,400 levels. A close below last two weeks' identical lows around 23,800 will open downside towards the lower band of the range placed around 23,600 levels. Short-term support is positioned around 23,600–23,500, being the confluence of the recent major low and 38.2% retracement of the last three weeks' pullback (22,183-24,601).
Other Market Updates
Foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers on Monday, purchasing equities worth Rs 2,835 crore. Domestic institutional investors also remained supportive, with net buying of Rs 4,764 crore. The Indian currency weakened to its lowest-ever closing level of 95.08 on Monday, pressured by increased demand for dollars from maturing forward contracts and a rise in crude oil prices.
Trading in Asia was mixed on Tuesday. Australian equities opened lower, while markets in Japan, South Korea, and mainland China remained shut. US index futures were largely unchanged following the S&P 500's retreat. Wall Street closed lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 pulling back from record highs after an explosion involving a South Korean vessel in the Strait of Hormuz raised fresh concerns about Middle East tensions and overshadowed strong earnings optimism.
