Escalating geopolitical tensions following military action by the United States against Venezuela are poised to drive silver prices significantly higher in the coming days. Analysts warn that the conflict could severely disrupt the already tight global supply of the precious metal, exacerbating a structural market deficit and fueling further gains.
Geopolitical Shockwaves Threaten Silver Supply Chains
The United States initiated a large-scale military strike against Venezuela early on Saturday. According to PTI reports, the operation resulted in the capture and removal of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country, marking a dramatic escalation after months of mounting pressure from Washington.
In a consequential development, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States would temporarily oversee Venezuela and utilize its substantial oil reserves for sale to other nations. This geopolitical upheaval has sent ripples through commodity markets, with silver positioned for a major impact.
Anuj Gupta, Director of Ya Wealth, highlighted the direct threat to silver supply. He pointed out that key global suppliers like Peru and Chad rely on sea passages near Venezuela for exports. "The US–Venezuela conflict is expected to hit the global silver supply," Gupta stated. "Following the recent US attacks, silver exports are expected to be disrupted, leading to a rise in the demand–supply imbalance and potentially fueling silver prices in the near term."
Expert Price Targets and Market Structure
Based on these supply concerns, Anuj Gupta forecasts COMEX silver prices to climb to $78 per ounce. For the domestic market, he predicts that MCX silver rates could soon reach a milestone of ₹245,000 per kilogram.
This bullish outlook is reinforced by the current technical and fundamental setup. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted that MCX silver futures recently advanced to approximately ₹236,316 per kg, continuing a powerful rally driven by constrained physical supply worldwide.
"The price structure remains decisively bullish within a rising channel," Ponmudi explained. He added that recent trading formed a consolidation pattern indicating a pause after a strong upward move. He identified strong support in the ₹230,000 to ₹223,000 range. "A sustained hold above ₹240,000 could trigger an accelerated move toward ₹250,000– ₹260,000," he concluded.
Deficit and Demand: The Drivers of Silver's Historic Rally
The potential supply shock from the Venezuela crisis compounds an already critical situation for silver. The year 2025 witnessed an extraordinary bull run, with MCX silver posting a staggering 170% gain. Gold also saw a robust 76.5% increase, supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical unrest, and strong central bank purchases.
This remarkable performance was driven by a confluence of factors:
- A persistent structural deficit: Global silver supply has fallen short of demand for seven straight years, a trend expected to extend into a sixth consecutive year in 2026.
- Soaring industrial demand: Unlike gold, silver has vast industrial uses, with solar panel manufacturing becoming a major consumption driver.
- Robust investment appetite: Demand for physical silver and silver-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continues to grow, reflecting strong investor confidence.
The broader metals complex also shone in 2025. Spot platinum surged 126%, its best performance in 15 years, while spot palladium rallied 81%.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations are those of individual analysts or broking firms. Investors are strongly advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
