Indian equity markets have scaled unprecedented heights, with both the Nifty and Sensex breaking through crucial resistance levels to establish fresh all-time highs. This remarkable surge has investors questioning whether the bullish momentum can sustain and what levels they should monitor in the coming months.
Critical Support Levels and Market Dynamics
According to Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, the Nifty's decisive breakout above 26,277 and the Sensex's move beyond 86,050 demonstrate substantial buying strength. However, he cautions that the current rally remains predominantly concentrated in large-cap stocks, while mid-cap and small-cap segments continue to underperform.
Global market volatility and currency fluctuations could trigger short-term corrections, making it essential for investors to watch key support zones. Bagadia identifies the Nifty support range of 26,000–25,800 and Sensex support of 85,000–84,500 as critical levels that could determine the sustainability of the current uptrend.
Projected Targets for 2025 and 2026
The expert has outlined precise targets for both major indices through March 2026. For December 2025, he anticipates the Nifty trading between 26,500–27,000, while the Sensex likely reaching 88,000–90,000.
Looking further ahead to March 2026, Bagadia projects the Nifty potentially climbing to 27,000–28,000, with the Sensex advancing to 90,000–92,000. These projections assume continued economic stability, steady interest rates, and robust corporate earnings performance.
Sectoral Analysis and Investment Strategy
When comparing large-cap versus mid-cap opportunities, Bagadia emphasizes that largecaps appear stronger with clearer uptrends, suggesting lower risk and more consistent returns over the next 12–18 months. While midcaps can deliver superior gains, their inherent volatility makes them riskier propositions.
Regarding the much-discussed PSU segment, the expert notes that many public sector undertakings have experienced substantial rallies, with several counters appearing overbought. He recommends a selective approach focusing on buying during dips while avoiding overextended PSU stocks.
The technology sector presents an interesting opportunity, with IT stock valuations reverting to pre-Covid levels. This normalization could potentially strengthen the long-term investment case, provided prices maintain crucial support levels.
Foreign Investment and Budget Expectations
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) might stage a meaningful return in December if market conditions remain favorable. Key triggers include stable global liquidity conditions, reduced interest rate concerns, and strong corporate earnings from Indian companies.
Market participants have significant expectations from the upcoming Budget, anticipating measures that stimulate economic growth through increased government spending, industry incentives, and support for consumer demand. Tax relief for middle-income households could further boost corporate earnings and market sentiment.
Challenges and Advice for New Investors
Looking toward 2026, equity markets may confront challenges including heightened volatility from persistent inflation, potential interest rate adjustments by central banks, and geopolitical tensions. These factors could lead to more frequent false breakouts and sector rotations.
For novice investors entering markets at current levels, Bagadia's primary advice centers on discipline and risk management rather than chasing quick profits. He emphasizes learning technical analysis, establishing clear entry and exit points, diversifying across sectors, and maintaining emotional control during market fluctuations.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations presented are those of individual analysts and not of Mint. Investors should consult certified experts before making investment decisions.
