Budget 2026 Trading: Special Sunday Session and Market Volatility Alert
The Union Budget for the financial year 2026-27 is scheduled to be presented on Sunday, 1st February 2026. In an unusual move, the Indian stock market will witness a special trading session on this day, despite typically remaining closed on weekends. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) will conduct trading activities from 9:15 AM to 3:30 PM. Meanwhile, the commodity market will operate during its morning shift, running from 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM.
Unique Trading Dynamics and Restrictions
This special session introduces specific constraints for traders. Notably, investors will not be able to sell cash-bought stocks on Friday, 31st January 2026. Similarly, during the Monday session following the Budget, selling of cash-bought stocks acquired on Sunday will be restricted. These measures are designed to manage liquidity and order flow during this high-stakes event.
In the lead-up to the Budget, the Indian stock market exhibited a cautious tone on Friday. Trading concluded with a weak bias as markets retreated from recent peaks, driven by aggressive selling in metal and information technology stocks. Mixed signals from global markets, coupled with persistent weakness in the Indian rupee, limited recovery attempts throughout the day. Sectoral performance remained selective, with fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), healthcare, media, consumer durables, and certain public sector banks outperforming. This pattern reflects measured optimism among investors as they position themselves ahead of the Union Budget announcements.
Expert Insights on Budget Day Trading Strategy
Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, emphasized the need for extreme caution when trading on Budget Day. He noted that historically, this day ranks among the most volatile for Indian markets. The intense price action often results in significant losses for retail traders, as rapid swings can trigger stop-loss orders in both directions before a clear trend emerges. The unique aspect of the 2026 Budget falling on a Sunday means institutional investors, who typically provide liquidity and stability, may be largely inactive. This absence could lead to thinner order books and more erratic movements driven primarily by retail sentiment.
Meena further advised that the initial market reaction during the Sunday special session might be noise. A clearer, more sustainable response is likely to materialize on Monday, once major players have had sufficient time to digest the policy changes outlined in the Budget.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, anticipates range-bound activity in the Nifty 50 and Sensex on Budget Day. He pointed out that after a gap down, the market oscillated between 25,200/82,000 and 25,350/82,400 throughout the previous session. The narrow range on intraday charts and the small candle on daily charts indicate indecisiveness between bullish and bearish forces.
Chouhan outlined key levels to watch: as long as the benchmark indices remain above 25,200/82,000, positive sentiment is likely to persist. On the upside, the market could rally to 25,500/82,800, with further potential to reach 25,600-25,675/83,000-83,200. Conversely, a drop below 25,200/82,000 could intensify weakness, possibly leading to a quick intraday decline to 25,000-24,900/81,500-81,200.
Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, provided insights on the Bank Nifty index. He identified the 59,300–59,250 zone as crucial support; a decisive break below this range might pull the index toward 58,700. On the resistance front, 60,000 serves as a key psychological barrier. Sustained strength above this level could pave the way toward 60,500. Elevated volatility is expected in the run-up to the Union Budget 2026.
Precious Metals Market Update
Gold and silver prices experienced a sharp decline following a margin-hike trigger on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which prompted aggressive profit-booking. COMEX gold concluded over 11% lower at $4,763.10 per ounce, while COMEX silver also saw significant losses. The current COMEX gold rate is approximately 15% below its record high of $5,625.16 per ounce, and the COMEX silver rate is more than 31% lower than its lifetime peak of $121.755 per ounce.
In the domestic market, MCX gold price for April futures settled at ₹1,50,849 per 10 grams, marking an intraday loss of ₹1,496 or 0.98% compared to the previous close of ₹1,52,345 per 10 grams. The MCX gold rate today is ₹29,930 away from its all-time high of ₹1,80,779 per 10 grams. MCX silver price for March futures ended at ₹2,91,922 per kilogram, which is ₹1,28,126 or 30.50% below the record high of ₹4,20,048 per kilogram.
Budget 2026 Stock Recommendations
Market experts have identified eight intraday stocks for consideration on Budget Day. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking; Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi; and Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, provided the following recommendations:
- Nestle India: Buy at ₹1,332, target ₹1,426, stop loss ₹1,285. The stock shows a strong upward trajectory with a breakout from a Bullish Flag formation.
- GESHIP: Buy at ₹1,202, target ₹1,286, stop loss ₹1,160. Recently hit a 52-week high after breaking out from consolidation, supported by key moving averages.
- BEL: Buy at ₹449, target ₹462, stop loss ₹442. Exhibits a consistent bullish pattern with solid support at ₹442.
- Deepak Fertilisers: Buy at ₹1,055, target ₹1,100, stop loss ₹1,020. Shows a strong bullish pattern with signs of renewed strength.
- Paytm: Buy at ₹1,037, target ₹1,100, stop loss ₹1,010. Another stock with a notable bullish pattern for short-term traders.
- Cummins India: Buy at ₹4,112, target ₹4,300, stop loss ₹4,020. Revived after a correction, with support around ₹3,900.
- RailTel: Buy at ₹353.40, target ₹375, stop loss ₹345. Improved bias after moving past the 50-day EMA, with RSI indicating a trend reversal.
- Cemindia Projects: Buy at ₹639.45, target ₹677, stop loss ₹625. Consolidating near support with improving bias and decent volume participation.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations are those of individual analysts or broking firms and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Key Takeaways
- Trading on Budget Day carries high risk due to expected significant volatility.
- Institutional investors may be inactive, potentially leading to erratic market movements driven by retail sentiment.
- Key stocks to watch include Nestle India, GESHIP, BEL, Deepak Fertilisers, Paytm, Cummins India, RailTel, and Cemindia Projects.
