Gold prices are expected to closely track the monetary policy decisions of several central banks this week, including the US Federal Reserve, according to Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. The precious metal is currently consolidating after sharp swings within a broad range, indicating a pause rather than a reversal of the prevailing trend.
Technical Analysis: Consolidation Phase
Price action shows an intact higher-high structure, but recent sideways movement suggests indecision near the upper supply zone around Rs 158,000 to Rs 160,000. The formation resembles a short-term flag or triangle continuation pattern, where a breakout on either side will define the next directional move. Volume has tapered slightly, reinforcing the consolidation narrative.
Gold prices recently moved from the upper band toward the mid-band (20-day moving average) and are now attempting to stabilize. The bands have started to contract, signaling a potential volatility expansion ahead. Sustaining above the mid-band (around Rs 150,500 to Rs 151,000 zone) keeps the bullish bias intact, while a breakdown below this could trigger a deeper mean reversion toward the lower band.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
- Immediate support: Rs 150,500
- Stronger support: Rs 148,500
- Resistance: Rs 155,500
- Key supply zone: Rs 158,000
A decisive close above Rs 158,000 could resume the broader uptrend. However, a break below Rs 148,500 may shift the momentum to bearish in the near term.
Macroeconomic Events to Watch
The economic docket is packed this week with data points and events, including policy meetings of the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank. US consumer confidence, GDP, inflation, and durable goods orders data will also be in focus.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes, or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.
