Weekly Economic Charts: GDP Boost, Sector Slowdown, and Global Partnerships
This week's data-driven analysis brings you essential insights from India's economic landscape, featuring key charts and numbers that highlight significant developments. From revised growth projections to international energy agreements and domestic financial trends, here's a comprehensive look at the stories shaping the nation's economy.
IMF Elevates India's GDP Growth Forecast for FY26
The International Monetary Fund has revised its projection for India's GDP growth in FY26 upward to 7.3%, a notable increase from the October estimate of 6.6%. This optimistic adjustment stems from better-than-expected performance in the September quarter and robust momentum in the current period. The Reserve Bank of India and the World Bank have similarly updated their forecasts in recent assessments.
However, major institutions anticipate a moderation in growth for subsequent years. The IMF projects a slowdown to 6.4% in both FY27 and FY28, while the World Bank expects a decline to 6.5% in FY27, influenced by factors such as US tariffs on Indian imports and the fading of cyclical elements.
Core Industries Exhibit Subdued Growth Trajectory
India's eight core industries have recorded a tepid growth rate of 2.6% during the first nine months of FY26, marking one of the slowest paces in the past decade, comparable only to FY16, FY20, and FY21. The December data, released earlier this week, reveals a broad-based slowdown, with all sectors except cement and steel underperforming.
Natural gas experienced the sharpest contraction at 3.2%, followed by crude oil at 1.8% and coal at 0.7%. Other components like refinery products, fertilizers, and electricity also showed weakness. Despite this, December offered a slight improvement, with output rising 3.7% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of expansion.
India-UAE Strengthen Energy Ties with $3-Billion LNG Deal
India has solidified its energy partnership with the United Arab Emirates by signing a $3-billion agreement to purchase liquefied natural gas. Under this deal, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co will supply LNG to Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd over a 10-year period starting in 2028.
The UAE's share in India's LNG imports has surged from 1.5% in FY18 to 12.8% this year, and this agreement is set to make India the UAE's largest LNG buyer by 2029, accounting for approximately 20% of its sales. Currently, the UAE ranks as India's third-largest external source of LNG, highlighting the deepening bilateral energy collaboration.
Key Numbers from the Week's News
- ₹75,000 crore: The estimated cost of national highway projects to be bid out under a build-operate-transfer toll model, reviving private sector involvement after a hiatus since 2014.
- 5.63: China's birth rate per 1,000 people in 2025, the lowest since 1949, reflecting demographic challenges in the world's second-most populous nation.
- 8.3%: The decline in third-quarter profit for LTIMindtree, attributed to charges related to new labour regulations.
- $25 billion: Investment planned by AM Green Group for a one-gigawatt data centre in Uttar Pradesh, following a deal at the World Economic Forum 2026.
- 3,000: Estimated fatalities in Iran's recent crackdown on protests, as per the first official government tally.
Global Tensions: US-EU Dispute Over Greenland
US President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 10% tariff on eight European allies over Greenland sparked global market jitters, with the Sensex falling nearly 2.5% over the past week. Although tensions eased after discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the episode underscores the US's dominant position in the global economy, which has surpassed the EU in size since 2010. This dynamic gives the US leverage, especially as it remains a key export market for the affected countries.
Micro Loans on UPI Amid Rising Household Debt
India's retail payments body is exploring the introduction of credit lines as low as ₹5,000 on the Unified Payments Interface, leveraging features like interest-free periods to encourage adoption. This initiative comes as household financial liabilities have risen from 3% of GDP in FY15 to nearly 5% in FY25, with over 280 million individuals holding active loans. Small-ticket, instant credit via UPI could further normalize borrowing for everyday expenses, shifting focus from asset creation to consumption.
This weekly compilation offers a data-rich perspective on economic trends, providing clarity on the numbers driving India's growth and challenges. Stay informed with these insights to navigate the evolving financial landscape.
