The Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has set an ambitious target to raise ₹60,000 crore by the end of March to achieve its revised receipt goal of ₹1.4 trillion for the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26). This heightened financial objective could significantly impact the prospects of relief for Bharti Airtel concerning its upcoming adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues, according to insights from telecom analysts.
Revised Budget Estimates and Revenue Projections
In the revised estimates detailed in the Union Budget for FY27, the government has projected receipts from communications services at ₹1.4 trillion for FY26. This marks a substantial increase of 71% from the earlier projections of ₹82,443 crore. The sharp rise has prompted questions within the industry about the sources of this additional revenue.
Telecom analysts are particularly skeptical about where the extra ₹60,000 crore will originate, given that the communications ministry has already reported earnings of approximately ₹80,000 crore as of December end. These earnings stem from various sources, including licence fees, spectrum use charges, and spectrum auction proceeds from private telecom operators.
Sources of Additional Receipts
An official, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that the additional receipts are expected to come from multiple channels. These include BSNL's spectrum payment, AGR dues anticipated from Bharti Airtel, and the quarterly licence fee receipts for FY26. For the subsequent fiscal year, FY27, telecom receipts are estimated at ₹1.17 trillion, based on expectations from potential spectrum auctions and statutory dues.
In a related development, state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) disclosed last August that it had paid about ₹52,298 crore for spectrum allotment on 2 April 2025. This payment is considered a non-cash receipt for the telecom department, as it involves equity infusion into BSNL, with the government later receiving equity shares in the name of the President of India.
Challenges and Analyst Perspectives
Parag Kar, an independent telecom analyst, expressed concerns about the feasibility of achieving the ₹60,000 crore target in the last quarter. "Reaching around ₹60,000 crore of additional telecom receipts in the last quarter looks challenging. It is not clear what the underlying source of this money is," he remarked. Kar further noted that if the government relies heavily on non-cash entries linked to BSNL, the budget should reflect a corresponding increase in BSNL's capital expenditure support, which has actually been reduced significantly in the revised estimates.
The heightened receipt estimate for FY26 also suggests that the government may not be considering any relief for Bharti Airtel regarding its upcoming AGR instalments in March, estimated at around ₹10,000 crore. Bharti Airtel has approached the DoT seeking a recalculation of its AGR dues, similar to the relief granted to Vodafone Idea (Vi).
Government Stance and Industry Appeals
Bharti Enterprises founder and chairman Sunil Bharti Mittal highlighted the company's position during the World Economic Forum at Davos last month. "From our own standpoint, we are hoping and have written to the government that AGR was our issue as well and we hope we get attention from the government," he stated in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
However, the government maintains that any telecom operator seeking AGR relief must pursue it through the courts, as the Supreme Court's relief on dues was specifically granted to Vodafone Idea. The Union cabinet recently froze Vi's AGR dues at ₹87,695 crore as of 31 December 2025, approving a payment plan spanning from FY32 to FY41. The government holds a 49% stake in Vi, and the DoT has begun reassessing AGR dues for the period FY07 to FY19.
Accounting Adjustments and Expenditure Reductions
Satya N. Gupta, former principal advisor at the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai), explained the complexities of accounting adjustments between telecom public sector companies and the DoT. "There are a lot of accounting readjustments that happen between telecom public sector companies and DoT. For example, the government provides funding support to BSNL and the state-owned operator issues equity in lieu of that. It is shown as receipts by the government," he said. Gupta added that in the last quarter, efforts are intensified to collect more receipts, with big-ticket items like asset monetization potentially playing a role.
Interestingly, the government has also reduced the expenditure for the communications ministry to ₹53,398 crore in FY26, down 34% from the earlier projections of ₹81,005 crore. The revised budget estimate for FY26 sets BSNL's capital expenditure at ₹6,885 crore, a significant drop from the earlier projection of ₹33,758 crore.
Future Fiscal Allocations
For the next fiscal year, the communications ministry's net expenditure has been allocated ₹73,991 crore. Out of this, BSNL has been earmarked ₹28,473 crore. The government clarified in the budget document that this provision is intended for capital infusion to support technology upgradation and restructuring within BSNL.
As the fiscal year draws to a close, the telecom department's aggressive revenue targets and the potential implications for key players like Bharti Airtel remain under close scrutiny. The industry awaits further developments on AGR dues and spectrum-related financial strategies.
