The dawn of 2026 presented a stark transatlantic contrast. On one hand, the inauguration of Zohran Mamdani stood as a celebratory moment of American democratic exceptionalism. Mere hours later, however, the world witnessed a different, more coercive form of US power: the forced removal and transfer to the United States of Venezuela's sitting President, Nicolás Maduro.
A Startling Action and Its Questioned Justifications
This dramatic intervention in a major Latin American nation sent shockwaves not just through the Western Hemisphere, now firmly under claimed US hegemony, but across the globe. The action strikes at the core of the global rules-based order, which relies on the US as its principal guarantor. Legal questions are also swirling within the US, notably the fact that Congress, a coequal branch of government, was kept completely in the dark about the operation.
President Donald Trump's administration cited Maduro's alleged involvement in narcotics trade and a US indictment as the primary cause. Yet, analysts note Venezuela is a minor player in the drug flow to the US. The stated goal of restoring democracy, citing Maduro's "stolen" 2024 election, also rings hollow, especially after Trump himself dismissed opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado as lacking domestic support. Trump's subsequent declaration that the "US will run Venezuela" and talks with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez point toward a power deal, not democratic renewal.
The Core Motive: Oil, Refineries, and Economic Imperatives
If the public reasons are unconvincing, what truly prompted this move? The compelling answer is oil. President Trump, a known believer in the adage that what benefits giants like ExxonMobil benefits America, explicitly stated that US oil firms would enter Venezuela to repair its crippled infrastructure.
While the US is the world's top oil producer, much of its output is light crude from fracking. Its older refineries, particularly in Texas, are configured for the heavy crude traditionally sourced from Venezuela, Russia, and Canada. Years of sanctions have reduced Venezuela's output to a trickle, but it still sits atop the world's largest proven oil reserves, alongside gold and coal. Notably, the US's third-largest oil company, CITGO, remains Venezuelan-owned.
Trump 1.0 vs. Trump 2.0: The Removal of Guardrails
This raises a pivotal question: why didn't Trump take this step during his first term? The key difference lies in the nature of his presidencies. Trump 1.0 was an accidental presidency, where institutionalists—many with military backgrounds—exercised significant influence. A radical departure from the established Pax Americana was not in their playbook.
Trump 2.0 operates with no such guardrails. His actions in 2026 appear driven by a blend of ideological pursuits, financial considerations (both national and personal), and a desire for a specific legacy. Trump aims to be remembered as a consequential president who aggressively extended US hegemonic power.
Domestic US politics also play a role. Flooding the market with Venezuelan oil could lower gasoline prices, a perennial voter concern. The move is also seen as an attempt to rebuild support among Latino voters shaken by earlier ICE actions and to solidify the MAGA base, which has faced strains from various controversies.
The long-term consequence, as experts warn, is that this unilateral action may inadvertently clear strategic space for China and Russia to expand their influence in Latin America and globally, challenging the very order the US seeks to dominate.
