The United States is moving closer to a significant overhaul of its H-1B visa selection process. The Trump administration has proposed shifting from the current random lottery system to a new wage-based selection method. While the stated aim is to prioritize higher-skilled and better-paid foreign professionals, immigration experts are raising concerns that the new system may still fail to target the most critical skills needed by the US economy.
Understanding the Proposed Wage-Based H-1B Lottery
The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has formally proposed amending the regulations for selecting H-1B registrations. The core change is the introduction of a weighted selection process. According to the DHS, this system is designed to "generally favor the allocation of H-1B visas to higher skilled and higher paid aliens," while still allowing employers to hire at all wage levels to meet the program's original Congressional intent.
The new framework establishes four wage levels, with Level 4 representing the highest wage and Level 1 being the entry-level wage. Under the proposed rules, the selection chances in the lottery would be weighted as follows: Level 4 wage earners get four chances, Level 3 get three chances, Level 2 get two chances, and Level 1 get only one chance.
Expert Analysis: Seniority Over Skill?
Despite the government's goal of favoring high skills, immigration policy expert Jeremy Neufeld, the immigration policy director at the Institute for Progress, argues that the plan has a fundamental flaw. He points out that the system essentially prioritizes seniority and salary level over specific occupational skills.
"Unfortunately it will still be a lottery, and weighted by seniority instead of higher-skilled occupations," Neufeld stated. He provided stark examples to illustrate the potential imbalance:
- An acupuncturist in Ohio earning $68,000 (Level IV) would have four times the chances of winning the lottery compared to a pediatric surgeon in Pennsylvania making $260,000 (Level I).
- An IT tech support worker in Phoenix, Arizona, with a $95,000 salary (Level II) would get twice as many chances as an early-career computer hardware engineer at a new semiconductor fab earning $130,000 (Level I).
- A human resources specialist in Huntsville, Alabama, making $85,000 (Level III) would have 1.5 times the chance compared to an aerospace engineer in the same city earning $140,000 (Level II).
These comparisons highlight a scenario where wage levels, which are often tied to experience and geographic location rather than pure skill scarcity, become the primary filter.
Implications and the Road Ahead
The proposed changes mark a pivotal shift in US immigration policy for skilled workers. For Indian IT professionals and other global talent, the new H-1B visa lottery rules could significantly alter success probabilities. Candidates offered higher salary packages by their sponsoring US employers would stand a better chance, potentially reshaping hiring strategies.
However, the critique from experts like Neufeld suggests the policy may not fully achieve its objective of attracting "the best and the brightest" in the most critical fields. Instead, it could inadvertently benefit experienced professionals in lower-skilled occupation categories who command higher wages due to seniority, while disadvantaging younger, highly specialized talent in STEM fields where entry-level wages may not reflect the role's strategic importance.
The DHS proposal is now open for public commentary before any final implementation. The outcome will be closely watched by US companies, foreign professionals—especially from India—and the broader global tech industry, as it will define the future flow of skilled talent into the United States.
