A dangerous new chapter has unfolded in Yemen's long-running war, moving beyond the familiar conflict with Houthi rebels to expose a sharp rift between its two most powerful Gulf allies. A military faceoff between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has erupted, triggered by a series of contentious airstrikes and threatening to shatter the fragile coalition that has shaped the conflict for years.
The Trigger: Airstrikes That Divided Allies
The immediate spark for the confrontation was a bombing campaign in late December 2024. Reports indicate that airstrikes targeted areas in Yemen's central Marib province and the strategic port city of Aden. While the official narrative pointed towards operations against Houthi positions, the aftermath revealed a far more complex and troubling reality.
Instead of unifying the anti-Houthi bloc, the bombings laid bare the deepening strategic divide between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The UAE perceived the strikes, reportedly conducted with Saudi involvement or acquiescence, as a direct threat to its interests and its allied forces on the ground, such as the Southern Transitional Council (STC). This group, which seeks an independent South Yemen, is a key UAE proxy but is often at odds with the Saudi-backed internationally recognized government.
The aftermath saw military forces from the two Gulf powers moving into alert positions against each other, a scenario almost unthinkable at the war's outset when they launched a joint intervention in 2015. Troop movements and naval deployments in the Red Sea and around the Yemeni coast signaled a rapid escalation from political disagreement to a tangible military standoff.
Roots of the Rift: Competing Visions for Yemen
This tense faceoff did not emerge overnight. It is the culmination of years of diverging goals between Saudi Arabia and the UAE within the Yemen conflict. Analysts point to several core reasons for the split.
Saudi Arabia's primary focus has consistently been on countering the influence of its regional rival, Iran, which backs the Houthi rebels. For Riyadh, securing its southern border and restoring the internationally recognized government in Sana'a are paramount objectives. The UAE, however, began to shift its strategy several years ago. While initially allied with Saudi goals, Abu Dhabi became more focused on fighting what it designated as terrorist groups, like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and on securing its economic and logistical interests along Yemen's southern coast and its islands.
Critically, the UAE has invested heavily in training and supporting local militias, most notably the STC. This has repeatedly put it at odds with the Saudi-backed government of President Rashad al-Alimi. The UAE's gradual military drawdown from Yemen, starting around 2019, did not mean a withdrawal of influence; instead, it shifted to a model of remote support for its proxies, further complicating the battlefield and the political landscape.
Implications and a Precarious Future
The direct confrontation between Saudi and Emirati forces marks a severe escalation with wide-ranging consequences. Firstly, it fragments the anti-Houthi front irreparably, granting a significant strategic advantage to the Houthi rebels. The rebels have already capitalized on regional divisions to strengthen their hold on northern Yemen and launch bold attacks, including those on international shipping in the Red Sea.
Secondly, the standoff threatens to open new, unpredictable fronts within Yemen's already chaotic multi-layered war. Clashes could erupt not just between the Saudi-UAE aligned factions but also pull in other local groups seeking to exploit the power vacuum. The humanitarian crisis, already described as the world's worst, is poised to worsen dramatically with the collapse of the coalition that managed, however imperfectly, some aspects of the conflict.
Internationally, this development poses a major challenge to peace efforts led by the United Nations and regional players like Oman. The foundational assumption of a unified Gulf Arab position on Yemen has been shattered. It also complicates global security, particularly for maritime traffic through the critical Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where Houthi attacks have already disrupted trade. The world is now watching a volatile situation where two of its most important strategic partners in the Gulf are locked in a tense military stalemate, with the people of Yemen caught once again in the crossfire.
