Myanmar's ruling military council has announced its intention to hold general elections in 2025, a move widely condemned by the international community, pro-democracy forces, and independent analysts as a sham designed to cement the junta's illegitimate power. The planned polls, coming after the violent coup of February 2021, are seen not as a path to democracy but as a strategic maneuver to create a facade of legitimacy.
A Blueprint for Legitimization, Not Democracy
The State Administration Council (SAC), as the junta calls itself, is following a familiar playbook used after previous coups. The process involves a controlled referendum on a new constitution, followed by managed elections where major opposition parties are banned or crippled. The 2008 constitution, drafted under military oversight, reserves 25% of parliamentary seats for unelected military personnel and grants the army chief ultimate authority. The upcoming vote is expected to operate under this same framework, ensuring the military's permanent dominance regardless of the electoral outcome.
Critics point out that holding any credible election is impossible under current conditions. The junta faces widespread armed resistance from People's Defence Forces (PDFs) and ethnic revolutionary organizations (EROs) across large swathes of the country. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing himself has admitted the government does not control significant territory. Furthermore, the regime has systematically dismantled democratic institutions, jailed or killed opposition leaders, and imposed draconian laws that make free campaigning impossible.
Unified Resistance and International Condemnation
The shadow civilian government, the National Unity Government (NUG), which is widely seen as the legitimate authority by many citizens and several foreign governments, has outright rejected the junta's electoral roadmap. NUG spokesperson Kyaw Zaw stated that elections under the 2008 constitution are unacceptable and that the resistance will not recognize any results. The NUG, along with its armed wing the PDFs, is committed to overthrowing the junta entirely.
Internationally, the plan has found little support. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has been attempting to mediate the crisis through its Five-Point Consensus, has excluded the junta from high-level meetings. Regional powers and Western nations have imposed sanctions on the regime and its business affiliates. The United Nations has repeatedly called for the release of political prisoners, including ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and a return to genuine democracy.
The Rohingya and a Deepening Humanitarian Crisis
The electoral farce unfolds against a backdrop of severe and escalating human suffering. The military's brutal crackdown on dissent has resulted in thousands of deaths and the displacement of over 2 million people. The Rohingya Muslim minority, victims of a genocidal campaign in 2017, remains disenfranchised and persecuted, with no prospect of citizenship or voting rights under the junta's discriminatory laws. The humanitarian situation across Myanmar is dire, with a collapsing economy and limited access to aid in conflict zones.
Analysts warn that the junta's election plan is likely to exacerbate violence rather than bring stability. The resistance forces view the polls as an act of aggression, a move to formalize the military's theft of sovereignty. This sets the stage for intensified conflict throughout 2024 and 2025 as the regime attempts to secure urban areas for voting while the resistance aims to disrupt the process entirely.
In conclusion, the proposed 2025 elections in Myanmar represent a calculated political spectacle orchestrated by force. Devoid of the fundamental principles of freedom, fairness, and inclusivity, they aim not to reflect the will of the people but to sanitize the military's grip on power. The true path for Myanmar lies not in a junta-controlled ballot box but in a comprehensive political solution that addresses the root causes of the conflict, respects federal democracy, and includes all ethnic groups in the country's future.
