The India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared on Thursday that the year 2025 was the eighth warmest year on record for the nation. The agency, while releasing its annual climate summary, also highlighted a more alarming long-term trend: the decade spanning 2016 to 2025 has emerged as the warmest ever recorded in India's history.
Temperature Trends and a Chilly January Forecast
Presenting the data, IMD's Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that the annual average temperature for 2025 was 0.28 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average calculated for the period 1991-2020. This places it as the eighth warmest year since nationwide record-keeping began in 1901. He emphasized the accelerating pace of warming, noting that 10 of the 15 warmest years in India have occurred in the recent 15-year period from 2011 to 2025. The warmest year on record remains 2024, which was 0.65°C above the long-term average.
Looking ahead to the immediate winter, the IMD issued a forecast for January 2026. It predicts that most regions of the country will experience "below normal" minimum temperatures, leading to colder nights. This pattern is expected to be pronounced in:
- North India: Uttar Pradesh.
- Central India: East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and north Maharashtra.
- East India: Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, and Jharkhand.
This chill will contrast with the previous year. The winter of 2025 was less severe, with February 2025 recording the highest monthly mean temperature ever for India, and January 2025 being the second highest on record.
Regional Variations and Rainfall Outlook
The forecast is not uniform across the country. The IMD indicated that parts of northwest India (Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh), northeast India, and southern Peninsular India are likely to see both day and night temperatures "above normal" (warmer). Furthermore, after the first few days of the month, daytime temperatures may even be warmer in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. However, nights in these regions will remain colder, a condition conducive to fog formation on many days.
On the precipitation front, the IMD predicted "normal to above normal" rainfall across most parts of the country in January, which is beneficial for standing Rabi (winter-sown) crops. While Punjab, Haryana, and other northwest regions may receive 'below normal' showers, the impact on farming is expected to be minimal due to the region's robust irrigation network and water storage facilities.
Human Toll and Global Context
The IMD's report also quantified the devastating human cost of extreme weather in 2025. Extreme weather events claimed 2,763 lives across the country. Uttar Pradesh recorded the highest number of casualties, followed by Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Bihar. Floods and heavy rains were the deadliest, causing 1,372 deaths, closely followed by lightning and thunderstorms, which took 1,317 lives.
Mohapatra linked the unusually dry December of 2025 to the absence of active western disturbances, which typically bring rain and thunderstorms to northwest and central India. He attributed this change in pattern to climate change, noting that the western disturbances were either moving too far north or progressing too rapidly across the region.
Globally, the year 2025 aligns with the warming trend. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently indicated that 2025 is set to be either the second or third warmest year on record globally. The years 2024 and 2023 hold the first and second positions, respectively, meaning the three warmest years on record are now 2024, 2023, and 2025.
