3.8 Billion People Could Face Extreme Heat by 2050, Oxford Study Warns
Scientists from the University of Oxford have issued a stark warning that nearly 3.8 billion people worldwide could be exposed to extreme heat conditions by 2050. The research, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, highlights that while tropical countries will bear the brunt of this crisis, cooler regions like Canada, Russia, and Finland will also need to adapt rapidly to survive the escalating temperatures.
Urgent Need for Cooling Infrastructure in Developing Nations
The study projects that demand for cooling will "drastically" increase in giant countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Nigeria, where hundreds of millions of people currently lack access to air conditioning or other means of beating the heat. According to lead author Jesus Lizana, an environmental scientist, "the need for adaptation to extreme heat is more urgent than previously known."
Lizana emphasized that new infrastructure, including sustainable air conditioning or passive cooling systems, must be built out within the next few years to ensure people can cope with dangerous heat. The research found that the population experiencing extreme heat conditions is projected to nearly double by 2050 if global average temperatures rise 2°C above preindustrial levels.
Silent Killer: The Deadly Impact of Prolonged Heat Exposure
Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can overwhelm the body's natural cooling systems, leading to symptoms ranging from dizziness and headaches to organ failure and death. Heat is often called a silent killer because most fatalities occur gradually as high temperatures and environmental factors work together to undermine the body's internal thermostat.
Climate change is making heatwaves longer and stronger, making access to cooling—especially air conditioning—vital for survival in the coming decades. The study warns that the most significant changes in "cooling degree days"—temperatures hot enough to require cooling—will occur in tropical or equatorial countries, particularly in Africa.
Countries Most at Risk: From Central Africa to South Asia
The research identified Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil as experiencing the biggest rise in dangerously hot temperatures. In South Asia, countries like India, the Philippines, and Bangladesh will be among the largest populations impacted by this trend.
Urban climate scientist and research co-author Radhika Khosla told AFP that "the most disadvantaged people are the ones who will bear the brunt of this trend our study shows for ever hotter days." She added that wealthier countries in traditionally cooler climates also face a major problem, even if many don't realize it yet.
Cooler Regions Face Unpreparedness Crisis
The study reveals that even a moderate increase in hotter days could have a severe impact in nations not used to such conditions. Countries like Canada, Russia, and Finland may experience steep drops in "heating degree days"—temperatures low enough to require indoor heating—under a 2°C warming scenario.
However, these nations are dangerously underprepared for heat because their homes and buildings are constructed to maximize sunshine and reduce ventilation, and public transport often runs without air conditioning. Lizana noted that while some cold-climate nations may see a drop in heating bills, these savings would likely be replaced by cooling costs over time, including in Europe where air conditioning remains rare.
"Wealthier countries cannot sit back and assume they will be OK—in many cases they are dangerously underprepared for the heat that is coming over the next few years," Lizana concluded, urging global action to address this looming crisis.
