As Tamil Nadu prepares for the crucial 2026 Legislative Assembly elections, the political landscape is marked by intense alliance formations, strategic calculations, and a direct contest for the state's 234 constituencies. The battle to cross the halfway mark of 118 seats will define who governs the southern state for the next five years.
The Frontrunners and The Challengers
The ruling DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) enters the fray as the apparent frontrunner, bolstered by its sweeping victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls where it won all 39 parliamentary seats from the state. The alliance, steered by Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, comprises the DMK, Congress, CPI(M), CPI, VCK, MDMK, and the IUML. This formidable coalition aims to translate its parliamentary success into a renewed state mandate.
Opposing them is the AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The AIADMK, under the leadership of Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS), has cemented its partnership with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which formally joined the coalition in January 2026. The BJP, with its state chief K. Annamalai aggressively campaigning, is reportedly seeking 56 seats and cabinet representation, indicating its ambitions to expand its footprint in Tamil Nadu politics.
New Players and Potential Spoilers
Adding an unpredictable dimension to the contest is the entry of actor Vijay's political outfit, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). The party claims internal surveys give it a substantial 30 to 32 percent vote share, positioning it as a potential spoiler that could disrupt the calculations of the two major blocs. Other parties like the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), AMMK, and DMDK are also in the fray, while influential figures like Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan continue to shape political discourse from the sidelines.
The electoral arithmetic is rooted in the 2021 results. In that election, the DMK won 133 seats individually, while the AIADMK secured 66. Alliance-wise, the SPA secured 159 seats with a 45.38% vote share, and the NDA got 75 seats with 39.71%. As of December 2025, the DMK holds 133 MLAs, the AIADMK 60, and the Congress 17, with four seats currently vacant.
The Electorate and The Stakes
Approximately 6.2 crore (62 million) voters are eligible to cast their ballots, with women voters marginally outnumbering men. The 2021 elections saw a robust turnout of 73.63% across the 234 constituencies, which include 30 seats reserved for SC and ST candidates. A similar high participation is anticipated in 2026, making every vote crucial.
Despite its strong position, the DMK faces internal alliance management, having reportedly rejected demands from a section of the state Congress unit for a share in power post-polls. A state minister, I. Periyasamy, has asserted that there "would be no coalition govt here," signalling the DMK's intent to lead decisively. As the campaign intensifies, the battle for Tamil Nadu's 234 seats is set to be a defining chapter in India's state politics.
