Campaigning Concludes as Political Strategist Makes Bold Prediction
As campaigning for the Bihar assembly elections concluded on Sunday, November 9, political strategist-turned-activist Prashant Kishor made significant claims about the fate of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The founder of Jan Suraaj asserted that Nitish Kumar is "on his way out" of power, interpreting the record voter turnout as a sign of anti-incumbency rather than support for the ruling government.
High Voter Turnout Signals Change
The electoral process in Bihar has witnessed substantial public participation, with the first phase of voting on November 6 recording an impressive 65 percent voter turnout. The second and final phase covering 122 seats is scheduled for November 11, with results to be declared on November 14.
Kishor challenged conventional political analysis, stating that the high participation rate of 65-67% should not be misinterpreted as pro-incumbency. "No, look, Nitish ji is going. Don't forget this. Now, 65-67% vote in Bihar, this is not pro-incumbency. This is not possible," he told ANI news agency.
Complex Electoral Atmosphere and Women Voters
The political commentator described Bihar's electoral environment as "very messy" and cautioned against making predictions without scientific exit polls. He emphasized that any speculation without proper data analysis is essentially "talking in the air."
Addressing the noticeable participation of women voters, Kishor acknowledged that government schemes like the ₹10,000 cash benefit under Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, cycle and uniform distribution, and pension assistance might have influenced turnout. However, he introduced the "denominator effect" concept, explaining that the apparent higher percentage of women voting is partly because fewer women are registered compared to men.
"Women have always voted, but the percentage looks higher because of registration differences. Still, some impact of Nitish Babu's schemes and a reduction in social-level anger is visible," Kishor elaborated.
Critical Stance on Major Alliances
Kishor didn't spare any major political formation in his analysis. He criticized the BJP-led central government for allegedly prioritizing Gujarat over Bihar in industrial development. "They (BJP) take votes from Bihar, so they should also set up factories in Bihar. For the last 15 years, PM Modi has set up factories in Gujarat, not in Bihar," he claimed during a campaign rally.
The political analyst also questioned the alternatives presented by both the ruling NDA and opposition Mahagathbandhan, posing a rhetorical question to voters: "Is this acceptable to you? 'Nitish Chacha rahenge ki jayenge?' Do you want 'Lalu ka Lalten'? Jungle Raj of Lalten? Now, if you don't vote for Lalu, Nitish, or Modi, then who is left?"
The electoral battle sees the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprising BJP, JD(U), HAMS, LJP (RV) and other parties attempting to retain power, while the Mahagathbandhan consisting of Congress, RJD, left parties and VIP aims to make a comeback. Meanwhile, Kishor's Jan Suraaj party has entered the electoral arena independently, contesting in more than 200 seats.
