BJP's Maharashtra Conundrum: To Retain or Release Ajit Pawar's NCP?
As Maharashtra's local body elections approach their conclusion with Zilla Parishad and Panchayat Samiti polls later this month, significant questions are emerging within the Bharatiya Janata Party about the strategic necessity of maintaining its alliance with Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party faction. The political calculus has shifted following the NCP's underwhelming performance in recent corporation elections, prompting internal reevaluation within BJP ranks.
Divergent Views Within State BJP Leadership
A substantial segment of Maharashtra BJP leaders believes the party should capitalize on its electoral momentum by focusing on organizational expansion rather than maintaining potentially burdensome alliances. "The BJP is not going to have any pre-poll pact with the NCP in the coming elections," revealed a party insider, highlighting the growing sentiment for independence.
These leaders point to the BJP's existing vote share of approximately 26% in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, suggesting that with focused grassroots efforts, the party could achieve the additional 10-15% needed to approach the coveted 51% threshold. Their discomfort with the NCP alliance is compounded by historical grievances, particularly regarding Ajit Pawar's alleged involvement in a multi-crore irrigation scam dating back over a decade.
The Central Leadership's Cautious Approach
Despite state-level reservations, the central BJP leadership maintains a more pragmatic stance. "Coalition politics cannot be ruled out," emphasized a state BJP leader aligned with this perspective. The complexity of Maharashtra's fragmented political landscape necessitates maintaining open channels, even if the NCP and NCP (SP) factions eventually merge.
This cautious approach recognizes potential future opportunities, including the possibility of Sharad Pawar's NCP (SP) mending fences with the BJP following reconciliation with Ajit Pawar's faction. With eight Lok Sabha MPs, Sharad Pawar's party could significantly reduce BJP's dependence on Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, creating alternative coalition possibilities.
Ideological Alignments and Practical Realities
While many BJP leaders acknowledge greater ideological compatibility with Shiv Sena's Hindutva orientation than with the NCP, practical governance challenges have emerged. Since the government formation and Shinde's transition to Deputy Chief Minister, frequent tensions have surfaced between the alliance partners, intensifying as local elections approached.
"Since the Shiv Sena is ideologically aligned with the BJP's Hindutva, we don't see any issue with them," noted a BJP leader. "But a lot will depend on whether the next elections will be multi-pronged or Mahayuti versus Maha Vikas Aghadi."
NCP's Perspective: Stability Amid Speculation
From the NCP's viewpoint, the alliance remains stable despite electoral setbacks and occasional public spats. State president Sunil Tatkare affirmed his party's continued commitment to the National Democratic Alliance at both state and central levels, while acknowledging potential merger discussions with the NCP (SP) faction.
Regarding heated exchanges during corporation elections—where Ajit Pawar accused BJP of corruption in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad civic bodies, and BJP referenced the irrigation scandal—Tatkare dismissed these as election-season phenomena. "This issue is done and dusted," he stated. "We are part of the BJP-led Mahayuti and will remain so."
Strategic Calculations in Maharashtra's Political Chessboard
A senior NCP leader close to Sharad Pawar provided insight into the faction's strategic positioning. "In principle, the NCP and the NCP (SP) were and are the same," they explained, describing the divide as primarily a political adjustment rather than ideological separation.
The leader noted that both NCP factions recognize their need to pursue the secular politics of Ambedkar, Shahu, and Phule to maintain their diverse vote bank encompassing Muslims, Dalits, and Marathas. Paradoxically, this secular positioning benefits the BJP by dividing opposition votes, creating mutual strategic value despite occasional friction.
Unlike the Congress, the NCP factions maintain ideological flexibility that enables transactional political maneuvers. "This helps them be transactional when it comes to making any moves towards or away from any political pole, including the BJP," the leader concluded, highlighting the pragmatic nature of Maharashtra's coalition politics.
As Maharashtra's political landscape continues evolving, the BJP faces a delicate balancing act between pursuing independent expansion and maintaining strategic alliances in India's most politically complex state.
