Six consecutive days of heavy rainfall in July have significantly narrowed India's monsoon rainfall deficit to 20%, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The deficit, which had been as high as 30% at the end of June, has been reduced thanks to widespread downpours across several states.
Active Monsoon Conditions Expected Over Central India
According to the IMD, monsoon conditions are likely to remain active over central parts of the country for the next three days. This includes states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Chhattisgarh, which have already received above-normal rainfall in the first week of July.
Senior IMD scientist Dr. M. Rajeevan stated that the monsoon trough is positioned favorably, and a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal is expected to bring more rain to central and western regions. “We expect the active phase to continue, which will further reduce the deficit,” he said.
Regional Variations in Rainfall Distribution
While the overall deficit has improved, regional disparities remain. The northwest and eastern parts of the country have received near-normal rainfall, while some southern states continue to face shortfalls. For instance, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have recorded deficits of 30% and 25%, respectively, as of July 6.
In contrast, central India has seen a surplus of 15% over the same period. The IMD has issued warnings for heavy to very heavy rainfall in parts of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Odisha over the next 48 hours.
Impact on Agriculture and Reservoirs
The improved rainfall has brought relief to farmers, particularly those growing kharif crops like paddy, soybean, and cotton. Sowing operations, which had been delayed due to the June deficit, have picked up pace in many regions.
Water levels in major reservoirs have also risen. According to the Central Water Commission, storage in 146 key reservoirs stood at 30% of live capacity as of July 6, up from 22% a week earlier. This is still below the normal of 35% for this time of year, but the trend is positive.
Forecast for the Coming Days
The IMD predicts that the monsoon will remain active over central and western India until July 9, with scattered heavy rainfall likely in Gujarat and Rajasthan. However, the intensity may decrease slightly after that, as the low-pressure area weakens.
Overall, the six-day spell has been crucial in bridging the deficit, but further consistent rainfall will be needed to reach the normal seasonal quota by September. “We need another 10-15 days of good rain to fully recover,” added Dr. Rajeevan.
