Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena faction is scrambling to avert a split as the political spotlight shifts to MLA Omraje Nimbalkar, whose decision on Monday could determine the fate of the party. According to sources close to the development, Nimbalkar is expected to make his political position clear on June 22, with the possibility of joining the rival Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction.
Background of the Crisis
The Shiv Sena (UBT) has been facing internal turmoil since June 2022, when a rebellion led by Eknath Shinde led to a split in the party. Shinde's faction, backed by the BJP, formed the government in Maharashtra, reducing Thackeray's faction to the opposition. The current crisis stems from reports that several MLAs from Thackeray's camp are in touch with the Shinde faction, raising fears of another exodus.
Omraje Nimbalkar's Role
Omraje Nimbalkar, a three-time MLA from the Phaltan constituency in Satara district, is considered a key figure in the Shiv Sena (UBT). He has been a loyalist of Uddhav Thackeray but has recently been seen as keeping his options open. Political analysts note that Nimbalkar's decision could trigger a domino effect, with other MLAs following suit.
“The party is in a precarious position. If Nimbalkar leaves, it could embolden others to defect,” said a senior Shiv Sena (UBT) leader who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Efforts to Retain MLAs
To prevent further defections, Thackeray has been holding meetings with party MLAs and workers. On Sunday, he chaired a meeting of the party's core committee, where he urged unity and loyalty. “We cannot afford another split. The party must stay united to fight the BJP and the Shinde faction,” Thackeray reportedly told the gathering.
Despite these efforts, reports suggest that at least 10 MLAs from the Shiv Sena (UBT) are in touch with the Shinde faction. The Shinde camp has been offering ministerial positions and other incentives to lure MLAs, according to sources.
Impact on Maharashtra Politics
If the Shiv Sena (UBT) suffers another split, it could significantly alter the political landscape in Maharashtra. The party currently has 16 MLAs in the state assembly, down from 55 after the 2022 split. A further reduction would weaken Thackeray's position and potentially lead to the merger of his faction with the Shinde faction, effectively ending the Shiv Sena as a separate entity.
Political observers note that the BJP has been keen to consolidate its alliance with the Shinde faction, and a weakened Thackeray camp would serve that purpose. “The BJP wants a stable ally in Maharashtra, and a unified Shinde-led Shiv Sena would be ideal for them,” said a political analyst.
Next Steps
All eyes are now on Omraje Nimbalkar, who is expected to address the media on Monday. His statement will likely clarify his political future and could set the tone for the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena (UBT) is bracing for the worst while hoping to retain its remaining MLAs.
